Comparisons of Changes in Statewide Races, From September 5 to Now

OHPI/ABC15 Arizona — October 2018 Statewide Poll Update

Steve Gaynor leads Secretary of State race.

Gaynor is leading among those with a college degree by 29 points (52–33%), which propels him into a convincing lead.

Kimberly Yee leads Arizona Treasurer race.

Democrat Mark Manoil is losing Independents, with undecideds remaining the same as in an OHPI poll conducted on September 5. Kimberly Yee gained those Independents.

Mark Brnovich leads Attorney General race.

January Contreras is losing 5 points and Brnovich is gaining 6 points. Since the latest poll, Contreras' base of voters is leaving and choosing Brnovich.

Frank Riggs leads Superintendent race.

This race remains the closest with 17% undecided — only 78% of Republicans back Riggs.

Corporation Commission race — change over time.

There is very little party crossover. While Independents vote slightly more Democratic (Kennedy first, then Sears), there are enough Republicans to keep Glassman and Olson ahead.

Quote from Chief Pollster and Managing Partner, Mike Noble:

"The biggest takeaway regarding the recent statewide poll results reaffirms that the fate of Republicans is tethered to Donald Trump's approval rating."

"We are starting to see increases among the GOP statewide, due to the Republican base finally consolidating, which we haven't seen all year."

Methodology: 42% landline / 58% cell phone. October 1–2, 2018. Likely 2018 General Election voter sample. 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-402-5181
John Cuthbert, ABC15 Arizona — [email protected], 602-803-2529