Kelly Leads in All Head-To-Head Matchups

Brnovich on Top in GOP Senate Primary

PHOENIX (September 30, 2021)- When Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly was elected last November, he faced a rather unique position than most of his other freshman colleagues: U.S. Senators are normally elected to six-year terms, but Kelly – who won a special election to finish the late-Sen. John McCain's term – would have to face voters once again in two years for a fresh six-year term. According to OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey, Senator Mark Kelly is leading the pack in all head-to-head matchups.

This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was conducted September 7th – September 12th, 2021 and surveyed 882 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Republican Primary

While we are still more than a year out from the 2022 election, the Republican primary to take on Senator Kelly is beginning to take shape. Among Republican Primary voters, Brnovich leads with double-digit support (27%), followed by McGuire in second with 14%. Both Masters and Lamon are polling at 6% and 3%, respectively.

Though Brnovich holds support from just over one quarter of Republican voters, the race could still be anyone's to win: 51% of Republican voters have yet to say who they will support.

"The bottom line: Brnovich is in a strong position right now, but the race is far from locked down given more than half of Republicans are undecided on who they will vote for," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.

General Election

With 13 months left to go until the general election, Kelly finds himself in a comfortable position, leading all four Republican candidates in potential head-to-head matchups. Against Brnovich, Senator Kelly currently leads 43% to 39%. Kelly leads McGuire 44% to 37%, Lamon 43% to 36%, and Masters 44% to 35%.

It is worth pointing out that Senator Mark Kelly does not poll above 45% against any of his potential rivals. "Evidently, Kelly is attempting to keep a low profile in an off-year while his opponents try to build up name recognition – a strategy that seems to be working, at least for now," said Mike Noble.

Kelly Favorables

Kelly enters the final months of the year with an overall net positive favorability rating of +4%. Forty-seven percent of voters hold a favorable view of the freshman Senator, while 43% view him unfavorably. Kelly's numbers are evenly split among Independents with 43% viewing him favorably and 42% unfavorably.

"It's interesting to see how different the coalitions of support for Arizona's two Democratic senators are," said Mike Noble. "Kelly is more of a 'rank and file' Democrat with high favorability among his own party, as compared to Sinema whose coalition is more diverse with crossover support."

Sinema Favorables

Though she will not be on the ballot again for another three years, Senator Kyrsten Sinema's favorability ratings continue to be quite interesting. Overall, 46% of Arizona voters view her favorably while 39% view her unfavorably. Among Republicans, her net favorability is underwater by less than 10 points — 48% view her unfavorably while 40% view her favorably. Among Democrats, Sinema's net favorability is positive by only 26 points, with 56% viewing her favorably and nearly one third (30%) viewing her unfavorably.

"Kyrsten Sinema still has plenty of time to turn these numbers around, but make no mistake: a 30% unfavorable rating from voters in your own party is not the ideal place for a Senator to be," said Jacob Joss, Data Analyst at OH Predictive Insights. "Numbers like that could potentially open the door for primary challengers."

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 7 to September 12, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample size was 882 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.3%.

Media Contacts:

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 398-0998