Poll: Biggs Has Early Lead in Arizona's Fifth Congressional District

Donald Trump Polls Low Among LDS Community

PHOENIX (June 9, 2016) — Arizona's 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. With preliminary indications, Arizona Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs has an early lead.

In a survey of 462 likely special election voters, 57% said they are undecided on who to vote for as their next Congressman. Even with the high undecideds, Andy Biggs has a two-to-one lead over all opponents.

"The LDS community has a 35% undecided rate which is the lowest in all demographic categories. Catholic, Christian Evangelical and Protestant voters are approximately 60% undecided," said Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights. "Clearly Biggs' lead is significantly larger among LDS voters and he is dominating in every major religious category. When it comes to Biggs' base, it is a melting pot of support." Noble added, "It is evident that Donald Trump is not a popular candidate among the LDS community despite him being the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee. If the LDS community is not motivated to vote due to Trump's presence on the ticket, it could negatively impact voter turnout for the state's congressional election."

Methodology: Automated survey completed June 2, 2016. Sample size: 462 completed surveys, MoE ±4.56%.