Poll: Arpaio Shakes Up AZ Senate Race

McSally leapfrogs Ward for the lead, Arpaio close second

Steve Bannon's endorsement is the kiss of death for Kelli Ward

PHOENIX (January 10, 2018) – What happens when America's former Toughest Sheriff joins the fray for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona? The race for the GOP nomination gets thrown into disarray.

A new OHPI/ABC15 poll of 504 registered voters shows U.S. Rep. Martha McSally of Tucson as the new leader with 31% support. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who announced his intention to seek the nomination, follows closely at 29%. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward now trails with 25%.

"Sheriff Joe makes a splash wherever he goes and his surprise entrance into the U.S. Senate race shines a new light on this important race to succeed Sen. Jeff Flake," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "Everyone knows Joe. He has near-unanimous name recognition. But it doesn't mean he is universally loved. It will be a challenge convincing voters he's a new Joe."

Candidate name ID, favorability, and net positives:

McSally leads the pack, with all three within the margin of error. She is the least damaged, with only 17% total unfavorable — though a third of voters don't know who she is. Arpaio clocked in at 97% name ID, with nearly a 2-1 positive view from likely GOP primary voters.

GOP Primary horse race:

In November, OHPI polled the race with just McSally and Ward — Ward led 42% to McSally's 34%, with 24% undecided. With Arpaio entering, McSally goes from second to first and Ward from first to last. McSally dropped only 3 points (within MoE), but Ward lost 17 points — those votes migrated to Arpaio, who also pulled 9 points of undecideds, leaving just 15% undecided.

Impact of endorsements from Trump, McConnell, and Bannon:

A Trump endorsement matters enormously — 73% say his endorsement is a significant influencer, moving voters positive by more than 2-1. McConnell moves only 57% and goes in the wrong direction by 8 points. Steve Bannon's endorsement moves 70% of voters — straight into the ground.

Hypothetical horse race with endorsements applied:

"Joe Arpaio's decision to enter the Senate race spells doom for the wobbly Ward campaign," Noble said. "Ward's support seemed to be a half mile wide and just a half inch deep. One day of Joe Arpaio in the race ruins more than a year of work Ward has done to capture the GOP nomination. Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are headed for a Tombstone-style showdown in August with the winner having to take on a rested and loaded for bear Kyrsten Sinema."

Methodology: IVR survey of 504 likely 2018 GOP Primary Election voters, completed January 9, 2018. MoE ±4.36%. Note: Age leaned heavily 55+ due to survey medium; average age of 2014 Republican ballot voters in Arizona was 65.

Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-313-1837