Poll: Arizona Senate Race Heating Up – Blue, not Red

Trump favorability underwater by 13 points in the desert

PHOENIX (April 19, 2018) – The GOP has two U.S. Senate seats at risk this election and Arizona's Senate seat is one of those two. Democrat front-runner Kyrsten Sinema has little to no opposition while the GOP currently has a three-way primary between Dr. Kelli Ward, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and Congresswoman Martha McSally.

Arizona's OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out who is winning and why.

"The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican party and whether or not the winning GOP primary candidate tries to or is able to create a distinct identity."

President Trump's favorability in Arizona:

Trump's image is currently underwater by 13 points. The survey covered 600 likely 2018 General Election voters with a GOP +12-point advantage over Democrats and a ±4% MoE (19% cell / 81% landline). Despite the 12-point GOP advantage, the President's favorability is in the red. Republicans and Democrats are polarized, but Independent voters view him unfavorably by a staggering 49-point margin.

Republicans are less consolidated around Trump with 19% unfavorable opinion; only 6% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of the Republican President.

Candidate name ID and favorability scorecard:

Key findings:

• Kelli Ward has 71% name ID in Maricopa County, but 41% view her unfavorably there — her only negative region. Excels most among those with Some College education (72% name ID, 41% favorable).
• Martha McSally has 92% name ID in Pima County but a majority (51%) view her negatively. Underwater only with post-grad voters (44% unfavorable).
• Kyrsten Sinema has 80% name ID in Maricopa County with 53% favorable and only 27% unfavorable. Underwater with High School or Less (31% favorable / 33% unfavorable).
• Joe Arpaio holds double the unfavorable (68%) vs. favorable (29%) in Maricopa County despite 6 election wins there. Excels with High School or Less (58% favorable / 38% unfavorable).

Arizona Senate GOP Primary horse race:

Ward leads McSally by 9 points, with her advantage coming from Trump's strong backers. Among those with a very favorable opinion of Trump (49% of the total sample), Ward took 39%, Arpaio 30%, and McSally only 25%.

U.S. Senate General Election matchups:

With a Republican +12 likely voter advantage, Democrats are still winning all three matchups: McSally trails Sinema by 6 points, Ward by 10 points, and Arpaio by a staggering 26 points.

Why is a Democrat leading with a 12-point Republican advantage? The answer is Independents.

Sinema has a definite lead by putting up huge leads with Independents, winning an outright majority of women, and peeling off more Republican voters than she loses in Democrat cross-over votes.

"Right now, there is no room in Arizona for any personality bigger than Trump in this Senate race," said Noah Rudnick, Data Analyst for OH Predictive Insights. "He dominates the preferred choice in the primary, then his detractors become the de facto Sinema voters in the general."

Methodology: Telephone survey completed April 10–11, 2018. 19% cell / 81% landline. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%. Republican primary sample: 302 respondents (90% Republican / 10% Independent), MoE ±5.64%.

Media Contact: Tiffany Traver, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-329-9460