Phoenix-Based Polling Firm Accurately Predicts Arizona Senate and Gubernatorial Races

OHPI extends win streak, predicting 11 races right in two years

PHOENIX (September 5, 2018) – Arizona's leading polling firm, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), is adding more wins to its score card after correctly predicting both Republican Martha McSally's win in the Arizona Senate race and David Garcia's win in the Democratic primary for Arizona Governor.

Founded in 2016, OHPI correctly called every election that year — a year when pollsters got it historically wrong. The polling firm went on to accurately predict the AZ-08 Special Election, which is notoriously difficult to predict. Since its founding, OHPI has correctly called all 11 races it has polled.

"It was important that we called this election correctly, given some of the current rhetoric on polls and the media," said Mike Noble, Managing Partner and Chief Pollster of OHPI. "Just because the numbers or facts aren't in your favor doesn't mean they are incorrect. We pride ourselves on accurately reflecting the mood of the voters in the Grand Canyon State."

The most recent OHPI/ABC15 poll, conducted August 14–15, 2018, showed Martha McSally in the lead with 47% of the likely vote. Kelli Ward was next with 27% and Joe Arpaio with 13%, leaving 12% undecided — positioning McSally 20 points above Ward and 34 points above Arpaio just two weeks out from Election Day.

Compared to McSally's actual vote of 53%, OHPI predicted 47%. Ward's actual vote of 28% (OHPI: 27%) and Arpaio's actual 19% (OHPI: 13%) were similarly close. The 12% undecided voters almost exclusively gravitated to Arpaio and McSally — no surprise given the Ward campaign's implosion in the final days of the race.

With McSally as the GOP front-runner taking on Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, OHPI is watching the impact on the general election. "With the split of the GOP during the primaries, it will be interesting to see how McSally's numbers are affected as she moves on to face Sinema," Noble said. "We're interested to see if the GOP comes together and if the moderates side with Sinema."

OHPI also accurately predicted David Garcia's 15-point lead in the Democratic primary for Arizona Governor — estimating a 15-point difference, and Garcia won by 15 points. Garcia's actual vote: 49%, Steve Farley: 34%, Kelly Fryer: 17%. OHPI predicted 40% for Garcia, 25% for Farley, and 7% for Fryer. The 28% undecided broke roughly evenly between the three candidates.

"You can wait to see who wins on Election Day — or we can just let you know ahead of time," Noble quipped.

Democratic Primary Methodology: IVR telephone survey, OHPI/ABC15, August 14–15, 2018. 90% Democrats / 10% Independent, 100% landline. Sample size: 589 completed surveys, MoE ±4.04%.

Republican Primary Methodology: IVR telephone survey, OHPI/ABC15, August 14–15, 2018. 89.3% Republican / 10.7% Independent, 100% landline. Sample size: 578 completed surveys, MoE ±4.08%.

Media Contact: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-414-8770