OH Predictive Insights Accurately Polls Midterm Elections

Phoenix-based polling firm adds wins, calling 13 total races right in two years

PHOENIX (Nov 15, 2018) – Arizona's leading polling firm, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), is adding even more wins to its list after predicting Senator-elect Kyrsten Sinema's final vote percentage, within the margin of error, and Governor Doug Ducey's win over David Garcia.

Since its founding in 2016, OHPI has correctly called all 13 races it has polled, including races in the recent Arizona Primary Election, multiple races throughout 2016, and the AZ-08 special election.

"With Arizona's U.S. Senate race being the hottest in the country, we were dead set on predicting it correctly," says Mike Noble, Managing Partner and Chief Pollster. "Turnout was key in this race, and voters showed up in record numbers."

The most recent OHPI/ABC15 poll, conducted November 2–3, 2018, showed McSally in the lead with 49% of the vote, while Kyrsten Sinema trailed with 48%. With Green candidate Angela Green dropping out of the race, the remaining 3% were undecided. This positioned Sinema only one point below McSally, mere days before the election.

Although a previous OHPI/ABC15 poll showed McSally ahead by seven points, drastic changes in early voting turnout prompted OHPI to conduct a last-minute poll to properly gauge public perception. As the new Democratic midterm primary voters began returning their ballots, it became clear they were planning to break general election turnout records.

Compared to Sinema's actual vote of 50%, OHPI predicted within the margin of error at 48%. The same can be said for McSally's actual vote of 48%, which OHPI predicted at 49%. The firm predicted that the final tally would come down to the last few days of voter turnout — accurate given Sinema's lead spiked in the days after the election.

Arizona's race for U.S. Senate has been a particularly tough contest, with the final vote taking days to call after the election passed. Pollsters around the country have been back and forth for months, with factors like a wave of young voters and record-breaking voter turnout affecting predictions. A breakdown of the actual vote compared to other pollsters' predictions shows how the race came down to who could best get their supporters out to vote on Election Day.

OHPI was also accurate in predicting Governor Ducey's win over David Garcia. The last OHPI/ABC15 poll predicted Ducey would come out with 57%, when the actual vote landed at 56%. Garcia was predicted with 39% and the actual vote came out at 41%.

"At OHPI, we pride ourselves on accuracy," says Noble. "As we always say — you can wait until election day, or we can let you know ahead of time."

Methodology for Governor Race: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed on October 22–23, 2018. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Methodology for Senate Race: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline on November 2–3, 2018. Sample size: 631 completed surveys, MoE ±3.9%.

Media Contact: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (480) 414-8770