OHPI Polling Forecasted Arizona Ballot Results

PHOENIX (November 17th, 2020) – With all of the votes counted, OH Predictive Insights celebrates correctly predicting the results of the state's most important contests. As unofficial results from Arizona's 2020 general election are finalized, the results closely match OH Predictive Insights' (OHPI) final poll of the 2020 Election season.

"As prominent national pollsters wonder what went wrong with their state polling, I'm pleased our polling and turnout models accurately reflected Arizona's electorate," OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. "Every contest we polled, we polled correctly."

The final OHPI 2020 poll, released one week before Election Day, showed Joe Biden earning the support of 49% of likely voters to Donald Trump's 46%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%, meaning Biden's support was expected to fall between 45.3% and 52.7%, and Trump's between 42.3% and 49.7%. Unofficial results show both candidates well within the OHPI final range: Joe Biden at 49.39% and Donald Trump at 49.09%.

The U.S. Senate race in Arizona is similarly in line with OHPI expectations. The OHPI final election poll put Mark Kelly's support at 50% and Martha McSally's at 45% (MoE ±3.7%). Unofficial results show Mark Kelly at 51.17% and Martha McSally at 48.83% — 0.13% outside the range, still more accurate than the final RealClearPolitics polling average.

Polling on Arizona's Proposition 207, the initiative to legalize recreational marijuana, is also on the mark. In the final OHPI poll, 60% of respondents supported the proposition. Unofficial results show 60.03% voted in favor of Prop 207.

In the race for Arizona's 6th Congressional District, OHPI conducted a September 2020 poll finding David Schweikert leading Hiral Tipirneni 49% to 46% (MoE ±4.3%). Unofficial results: Schweikert 52.17%, Tipirneni 47.83% — well within range.

The 2020 election cycle once again proves the value of having a pollster that knows the ins and outs of the local electorate — not one who parachutes in from out of state every election season.

PDF AZPOP Toplines and Crosstabs

Methodology: This poll was conducted as a 100% Live Caller phone survey, 68% cell phones/32% landlines, completed October 22–25, 2020. Sample size: 716 completed surveys, MoE ±3.7%.

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