Biden and Kelly Maintain Leads in Arizona

Support for Ballot Initiatives Surpasses 50 Percent Mark

PHOENIX (October 15th, 2020)- With early ballots being filled out and mailed back to county election offices, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a small lead against President Donald Trump, according to the latest OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll – a statewide likely voter survey.

In the race for Arizona's 11 electoral votes, Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 4-points. Just shy of half (49%) of Arizonans plan on casting their ballots for Biden while 45% plan to do so for Trump.

The poll marks the first time that Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen was included alongside the two major party candidates and she is the choice of 4% of Arizona voters. When voters were then asked to pick only between Biden and Trump, 50% of voters chose Biden and 47% chose Trump.

Another reason why President Trump appears to be struggling in this election is his inability to retain voters who cast their ballot for him in 2016. Less than 9 in 10 of those who voted for Trump in 2016 say they will do so again. Ninety-four percent of 2016 Hillary Clinton voters say they plan to vote for Joe Biden.

Donald Trump is also struggling to win over new voters. Those who voted for a third-party candidate four years ago now support Joe Biden over Trump by a 15-point margin, and voters who either were ineligible or did not vote in 2016 support the former-Veep by 8 points.

"This race appears to be narrowing as ballots start reaching voters' mailboxes," said OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "However, President Trump remains in danger of becoming the first Republican in a generation to lose Arizona."

In Arizona's hotly contested Senate race, Mark Kelly continues to lead Sen. Martha McSally. The former astronaut earns the support of 50 percent of Arizonans compared to the former fighter pilot's 45 percent. McSally's strongest supporters are males (McSally +4), those who live in rural Arizona (McSally +7), voters 55 and older (McSally +11), and whites without a college degree (McSally +12). Conversely, Kelly performs well with females (Kelly +13), Pima County residents (Kelly +22), younger voters (Kelly +18), and whites with a college degree (Kelly +24).

From September to October, Martha McSally's net favorability fell one point (from -7 to -8). Mark Kelly's fell quite drastically — from a net +17 in September to +7 in October.

For much of this campaign, McSally has struggled to lock up the Republican base. Now, she is winning Republicans by 82 points — similar to Kelly's 84-point margin among Democrats. However, McSally has spent so much time shoring up her base that she has lost major ground with Independents. She is losing this pivotal voting bloc by 34 points to Mark Kelly.

"Martha McSally's base strategy has finally started paying dividends," said Noble. "However, by playing this game, she has lost major ground with Independents."

Turning to ballot measures in Arizona, supporters of Proposition 208 – the Invest in Education Act – have a solid but not insurmountable lead. More than half (55%) of voters currently would support raising taxes on Arizona's wealthy in order to increase education funding in the state, while just 39% oppose.

Proposition 207 is in slightly better shape. Again, 55% of likely voters support legalizing recreational marijuana in Arizona while 37% are opposed. This is a stark difference from last month's AZPOP which showed support and opposition to the measure statistically tied.

"Proposition 207 and 208 have both crossed the 50% threshold and over the next 3 weeks must hold their support," said Noble.

There are large disparities in voting intentions between those who plan to vote on Election Day versus those who plan to cast their ballots early. Voters who say they will vote on Election Day overwhelmingly support President Trump and Martha McSally. Those who plan on voting early support Joe Biden and Mark Kelly.

"Historically, Republican candidates hold solid leads after early ballots are counted," said Noble. "This year, Democrats are likely to overperform Republicans in Early Ballot returns."

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Methodology:
PDF This poll
was conducted as a blended phone survey 45.7% Live Caller/54.3% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from October 4th to October 8th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 608 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034