Dangerous Slopes Ahead for the GOP in Arizona

One year into Trump's Presidency, it's viewed as Unsuccessful

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE — November 15, 2017

PHOENIX (November 15, 2017) – We have just passed the one-year mark since President Donald Trump was elected, and a lot has happened… One major event for Arizona was incumbent Arizona Republican Senator Jeff Flake dropping the bombshell that he will not be seeking re-election.

While we are still one year out from the 2018 General Election we wanted to see where Trump stands with likely voters, and evaluate the state of the U.S. Senate race. As we saw in Virginia, how voters feel about the President can have a huge effect on turnout and results. In Arizona, the GOP faces some dangerous slopes.

One of the most important factors in any mid-term election is the voters' perceived performance of the president. Currently, more 2018 Arizona voters view Trump's performance for the first year as unsuccessful. The survey was conducted with a Republican +12-point advantage over Democrats. Despite the 12-point GOP advantage in the poll, the President's first year is still viewed as unsuccessful. Republicans and Democrats are polarized on this question, however the all-important Independents view his first year as unsuccessful by a staggering 22-point margin. Females were in the red by 10 points compared to males who were 3 points positive.

When that data is graphed, it shows some dangerous slopes for the GOP.

As soon as the question reaches self-described moderates, the President's numbers go negative, and stay that way. That one chart spells a lot of trouble for the GOP — with a 22-point negative among Independents, and a majority of moderate voters viewing the President's first year negatively, GOP candidates face hard choices. Especially when 40% of the overall sample self-identified as "moderates."

Looking at the personal impact to Arizona voters, we find a possibly better picture with a +3-point margin for respondents who thought they were better off vs. those who are worse off. But 61% of Arizona likely voters say things are the same, or have gotten worse.

Key findings on the two Republican challengers:

• Kelli Ward has 85% name ID among Republicans; 59% favorable / 26% unfavorable
• Martha McSally has 60% name ID among Republicans; 48% favorable / 13% unfavorable
• Among Independents, Ward has 80% name ID; 36% favorable / 44% unfavorable
• McSally has 56% name ID among Independents; 29% favorable / 27% unfavorable

Martha McSally has 97% name ID in Pima county but is far less known in Maricopa (57%) and rural Arizona (44%). Kelli Ward is underwater in Maricopa (34% favorable / 47% unfavorable) but performs much stronger in rural Arizona (45% favorable / 31% unfavorable).

Currently, Ward has an advantage of +7 points over McSally. Ward's strength comes from males, high school or less education, rural Arizona, and "very conservative" voters. McSally's strength lies in "somewhat conservative" and "moderate" voters and a +30-point advantage in Pima County.

With a +12 Republican likely voter advantage, both GOP candidates are still trailing Kyrsten Sinema. McSally trails by 1 point; Ward trails by 3 points — both within the margin of error.

Whether it was Ward or McSally against Sinema, support based on political ideology was almost identical for either potential GOP nominee — basically mirroring Trump's numbers.

Summary: As we start to move into the mid-term elections Trump's support/approval among Independents is severely lacking; plus, some of his Republican base is still not fully onboard. The Republican primary fight between Congresswoman McSally and former State Senator Kelli Ward is currently in Ward's favor, however having campaigned statewide for the past 3 years it appears she is well defined and may have hit a ceiling among Arizona voters.

"Republicans on the ticket in traditional 'toss-up' or 'right leaning' races should prepare for the fight of their lives come 2018," said Mike Noble.

The top 3 issues are education (28%), illegal immigration (27%), and health care (24%). Education is the top issue for Independents (38%) and Democrats (41%). The top issue among Republicans was illegal immigration at 44%.

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 9, 2017, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, and gender. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ± 4%. The Republican primary matchup question asked 323 qualifying respondents, weighted 90% Republican / 10% Independent, MoE ± 5.45%.

Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-313-1837