NVPOP: Rosen Holds Solid Lead in Nevada Senate Race

Incumbent Democrat Leads by 7 as Brown Struggles with Independent Voters

LAS VEGAS (October 3rd, 2024) – Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen holds a 7-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown in Nevada's competitive U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) survey from OH Predictive Insights. Rosen leads 51% to 44%, with 5% of likely voters still undecided as the race enters its final month.

Brown, a decorated Army veteran who won his Republican primary in June, has emerged as a credible challenger to Rosen, but he has struggled to replicate his primary momentum in the general election, particularly with Independent voters — Nevada's largest voter registration group at 33% of registered voters.

Among Independents, Rosen leads Brown 53% to 38%. Brown performs strongly with Republicans (91% support) and in rural Nevada (58% to 36%), but his deficit in the Las Vegas metro area — where 73% of Nevada voters live — represents a significant structural challenge. In Clark County, Rosen leads 55% to 42%.

"Nevada is always going to be competitive, but Brown hasn't found a message that breaks through with Independents," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Rosen has built a reputation as a moderate problem-solver, and that brand is holding up even in a tough national environment."

Rosen's strongest issues include healthcare (she leads Brown 57% to 36% on voter trust) and Social Security/Medicare (62% to 32%). Brown leads on immigration/border security (51% to 40%) and crime/public safety (49% to 43%).

The survey found that Rosen's 2022 vote for the Inflation Reduction Act — which capped insulin prices and allowed Medicare drug price negotiation — is a net positive for her among Nevada seniors (65+), who favor her 54% to 42%. Nevada has a higher proportion of hospitality workers and retirees than most states, making healthcare cost issues particularly salient.

Brown's military service record is an asset with veterans (he leads 54% to 43% among Nevada veterans) and provides a compelling biography, but his opposition to abortion rights in a state where 63% of voters support abortion access is a persistent liability.

"Rosen is running a disciplined campaign focused on kitchen-table issues," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Brown is a strong candidate, but he's fighting the fundamentals of a state that has been trending blue at the statewide level."

Methodology: NVPOP conducted September 29 – October 1, 2024. Blended 46% Live Caller / 54% IVR. Nevada 2024 Likely Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034