NVPOP: Nevada 2026 Governor Race Early Poll — Competitive Field Emerging

Democrats Hold 3-Point Generic Advantage; No GOP Candidate Has Broken Through

LAS VEGAS (September 25th, 2025) – Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial contest is shaping up as a competitive race, with Democrats holding a narrow 3-point generic ballot advantage for governor, 47% to 44%, according to the latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) from OH Predictive Insights.

Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony, who is exploring a Republican gubernatorial bid, leads the GOP primary field with 18% support among likely Republican primary voters, followed by state Senate Minority Leader Robin Titus at 12%. However, 70% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided — a reflection of how early the race is and the relatively low name recognition of most potential candidates.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Nikki Neal is the presumptive frontrunner at 34% support among likely Democratic primary voters, with former Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman at 19%.

"Nevada has been a purple state trending blue at the statewide level for several cycles," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The 3-point generic Democratic advantage reflects the party's infrastructure and organizational advantages in Clark County, but it's a competitive environment."

Nevada's economy — heavily dependent on tourism, gaming, and hospitality — has recovered strongly from the COVID pandemic, and economic conditions rank as the top voter concern at 33%, followed by housing affordability at 28% and immigration at 19%. The strong economic fundamentals create both an opportunity for Democrats defending the economic record and a challenge for Republicans trying to draw economic contrasts.

The survey finds that 54% of Nevada voters approve of the job being done by the state's current Democratic administration, a strong base from which the Democratic nominee will campaign.

Methodology: NVPOP conducted September 20–22, 2025. Blended 44% Live Caller / 56% IVR. Nevada Likely Voters. n=500 with ±4.4% MOE.