AZ GOP Gov Race: Lake Leads, Robson Climbing, Salmon Stalls

Brnovich Holds Slim Lead in Senate Contest, Lamon on his Heels – Many Undecided still in Senate Race

PHOENIX (April 13th, 2022)- With Arizona's primary election roughly three months away and many competitive GOP primary races showing crowded fields, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) conducted its first statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll of the current election cycle. The recent survey among Arizona likely voters revealed a competitive race for Governor and U.S. Senate, however, aside from the State Treasurer's race, the remaining statewide offices are currently a jump ball.

This AZPOP was conducted April 4th, 2022 – April 5th, 2022 and surveyed 500 Arizona qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Likely GOP Primary Voter Sentiment

According to the latest Arizona survey by OHPI, the top issue for Arizona's GOP is Immigration at an overwhelming 56%, followed by Jobs/Economy (13%) and Education (12%).

"The current civil war happening in the GOP primary is highlighted in our survey results when you look at GOP vs Trump support," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "39% identified as being supportive of the former President, meanwhile, 33% identified as being supportive of the Republican Party."

Governor's Race

Arizona's Governor race is the most interesting of all the statewide primaries polled. Kari Lake is currently in the first position with 29% support, yet Karin Taylor-Robson is hot on her heels with 22% support. In a distant 3rd sits Matt Salmon at 11% while Gaynor continues to struggle for an electoral pulse with only 3% support. However, one-third (35%) of likely GOP primary voters are still undecided.

"With one-third of likely voters undecided in the Governor's contest, the winner will likely be the one who does the best with voter math," said Noble.

When it comes to geographic regions of support, Lake holds an advantage in voter-rich Maricopa County with 32% support while Robson (21%) and Salmon (12%) fall behind. Robson and Lake are essentially tied in support among Arizona's Pima and rural counties. Lake is strongest among self-identified Conservative Republicans (33%), although, her support drops among Moderate Republicans (19%).

"Salmon needs to figure out how to gain some momentum, Lake needs to figure out a way to increase her base of support, Robson needs to not run out money, and Gaynor needs to do something – anything to stave off irrelevancy," said Noble.

U.S. Senate Race

Current Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich holds a small lead in the U.S. Senate contest, with businessman Jim Lamon just 5 points behind the political veteran. However, a lot can happen from now until Election Day with 44% of voters currently still undecided in this race.

"None of the candidates have been able to break away and define themselves in the Senate contest," said Noble. "They will need to do a better job of convincing voters that they deserve to be the GOP nominee to take on Kelly in November."

"In the down-ticket races, the biggest vote-share goes to the voters who are undecided," said Noble. "These aspiring candidates should focus on raising money and getting in front of as many voters as they can from now until Election Day if they hope to be victorious come August."

Note: This is the first AZ Republican primary likely voter poll of the cycle, and OHPI has two more scheduled. The next one will be just before Early Voting begins, and the third (and final) poll will be our poll of record near Election Day.

Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from April 4th to April 5th, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Likely Republican primary voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Arizona likely GOP Primary Voter population by gender, region, age, and party affiliation. The sample size was 500 likely voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 4.4%.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 398-0998

Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (314) 287-1985