OHPI/ABC15 Poll: David Garcia Has 15-Point Lead in Democratic Primary for Arizona Governor

Almost a Third of Voters Undecided

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE — August 21, 2018

PHOENIX (August 21, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights shows that David Garcia has a 15-point lead over his nearest rival, State Senator Steve Farley, in the Arizona Democratic primary race for Governor.

OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out who is currently winning the Democratic primary for Governor.

"Garcia currently has the advantage due to strong support among self-identified liberals, women and voter-rich Maricopa County," said Mike Noble, Managing Partner and Chief Pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "With 28 percent of the likely Democratic vote still undecided, it's possible we could see a surprise come election night."

David Garcia currently holds 40% of the primary vote, Steve Farley holds 25% and Kelly Fryer has 7%, with 28% still undecided.

Garcia is outperforming his fellow Democratic opponents in three key demographic groups: gender, region, and political ideology. Compared to his closest rival, Steve Farley, Garcia holds a 17-point advantage over women, 24-point advantage in Maricopa County, and 25-point advantage among self-identified liberals. There is one bright spot for Farley: He is outperforming Garcia in Pima County by 14 points.

Of those surveyed, 46% said they have already mailed back their early ballot, 34% have not mailed in their early ballot but plan on sending it in, and 19% plan to vote at the polls. President Donald Trump's job approval was not much of a surprise given the target audience — roughly 9 out of every 10 respondents disapproved of the job Trump is doing.

Methodology: This IVR telephone survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights in partnership with ABC15-Phoenix on August 14–15, 2018, from a likely Arizona 2018 Democratic Primary voter sample. 90% of respondents were Democrats and 10% were Independent voters. 100% of respondents were completed via landline. Sample size: 589 completed surveys, MoE ± 4.04%.

Media Contacts: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-414-8770 | Chris Kline, ABC15 Arizona — [email protected], 602-685-3055