For the First Time, Majority of Voters Optimistic About Next 30 Days of Coronavirus
Share of Voters Willing to Vaccinate Continues to Rise
PHOENIX (March 29th, 2021)- One year into COVID, Arizona voters are confident the worst is over, according to OH Predictive Insights’ most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP).
With more than 2.5 million doses of vaccine distributed to Arizonans and new daily cases hovering in the triple digits, voters are confident the state has turned the corner on COVID-19.
In a sharp reversal from OHPI’s January AZPOP survey – when 46% of voters expected the COVID situation to worsen – more voters now expect the COVID situation to improve in the month ahead than at any point since OHPI has been asking the question.
“Arizonans understand the end of COVID is near,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. “They see an impressive vaccine rollout and declining cases. Voters are optimistic the worst of COVID-19 is behind.”
The AZPOP is a survey of registered voters in the state of Arizona. The survey was conducted from March 8th to March 12th, 2021, included the opinions of 690 Arizona voters, and had a margin of error of 3.7%.
Among the groups most optimistic about the upcoming month are Republicans (65% expect conditions to improve), voters over the age of 65 (63%), and white voters (57%). Democrats (45% expect conditions to improve), Independents (43%), non-white voters (41%), and voters under the age of 35 (35%) are the groups least optimistic about the upcoming 30 days.
While voters’ hopes for the month ahead are high, concern over the virus remains high, too. Six in 10 (59%) Arizona voters are extremely or moderately concerned about the spread of the Coronaviruss – statistically equivalent to the share of voters who were at the same level of concern in January’s AZPOP (64%).
As has been the case in every poll OHPI has done on the subject of the Coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic, voters’ concern about the outbreak is closely tied to their party registration. Democrats are now twice as likely as Republicans to be at this heightened level of concern, with Independents falling in between, as usual.
Going back briefly to the topic of voters’ expectations for the month ahead, even voters who are extremely or moderately concerned about the pandemic are more optimistic than not about the next 30 days. Nearly half (45%) of voters at the highest levels of concern expect conditions to improve, while one-quarter (28%) expect them to worsen. On the other hand, voters who are not particularly concerned about the pandemic (‘’slightly” or “not at all” concerned) are very positive about the future. Two-thirds (68%) expect things to get better, while only 4% expect them to get worse.
On the topic of vaccine distribution, the share of voters unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine continues to fall. In September of 2020, 38% of voters would have refused a vaccine and an additional 23% were unsure if they would. By January of 2021, 25% of voters said they would refuse a vaccine and 13% had yet to make up their mind. Now, only 19% of voters would refuse a vaccine, and 12% are unsure.
“The public’s confidence in the vaccine is increasing as more people get shots and few side effects are reported,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss.
Another optimistic data point found in this month’s AZPOP is the type of people most willing to take (or who have already received) the Coronavirus vaccine. Only 12% of the most vulnerable portion of the electorate – those 65 and older – would be unwilling to take a vaccine. Eight in ten (82%) have been or would be vaccinated. The age groups least willing to take a vaccine were those between the ages of 18 and 34 years old (26%) and 35 and 44 years old (29%). According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, those under 45 make up less than 5% of all COVID-19 deaths in Arizona, while those over 65 represent 75% of Arizona’s COVID deaths, as of March 26th, 2021.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from March 8th to March 12th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 690 registered voters, with an MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Note: For comparing 2021 data to 2020 data, surveys conducted in 2021 were of registered voters and conducted via an online opt-in panel, while surveys conducted in 2020 were of likely voters and conducted via a phone-based live caller or live-caller/IVR.
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, email@example.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more informatio