Outside Spending in Battle for the House Hits Nine Figures

The main Super PACs have reserved over $100 million in airtime for control of Congress

PHOENIX (July 12, 2018) – As election season heats up, the parties and outside groups begin to pour resources into districts and media markets. This includes the Republican and Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), which has reserved just over $63 million dollars in media markets and digital ads across the nation — more than a 50% increase from the $40 million spent in the 2016 cycle.

"The Congressional Leadership Fund has increased their reserved spending by $20 million dollars giving the Republicans a substantial advantage," said Noah Rudnick, data analyst at OH Predictive Insights. "You can see them gain the upper hand in key markets from Washington up to the reaches of Maine."

The maps below show the specific seats that CLF spent in 2016, then current spending in the districts. There is spillover from media market buys into non-competitive districts; a clearer picture will emerge once the PAC determines which candidate to use the ads for. Any 2016 Pennsylvania spending was excluded due to old district lines.

The map shows new spending areas in 2018, specifically Virginia's VA-2, NC-13 (freshman Ted Budd facing a serious challenge), WA-8 (open suburban Seattle market), WA-5 (targeted digital ads for Cathy McMorris Rodgers), Maine's 2nd (rural district that went for Trump in 2016), and Lexington's KY-6, where Republican incumbent Andy Barr takes on former fighter pilot Amy McGrath.

On the flip side, the House Majority PAC is slated to spend around $45 million, on par with the $47 million in 2016. Unlike 2016, there is some spending in Boston, along with costly markets containing suburban targets such as Dallas (TX-7) and Chicago (IL-6). It also mirrors the CLF with new ad buys in Seattle and Lexington.

The last set of maps shows the current cash advantage per party in each district. Having spent more overall, Republicans have the edge in Minnesota, California, New York, and Pennsylvania. Democrats are spending more in Iowa's districts, and have spread spending across more markets as Democratic candidates are regularly raising enough to cover themselves.

Overall, though spending has only increased, it appears likely to become concentrated to a couple dozen seats, with large media markets eating up waste as it spills into non-competitive districts. The patterns and costs of media markets will determine a lot about the fate of the House in 2018.

Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-402-5181