U.S. Senate Race: Kelly holds the Lead Over Masters

Marc Victor Gains Traction as Masters Struggles with his Candidate Image

PHOENIX (October 12th, 2022)– Although the ship may feel calm and steady for Kelly, Masters is currently riding through rougher waters. OH Predictive Insights' (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) assessed Arizona likely voters' sentiment on the U.S. Senate race. According to the survey, when it comes to the candidates' favorabilities there is an 18-point difference between Kelly (+5) and Masters (-13).

This AZPOP was conducted October 4th – October 6th, 2022 and surveyed 674 Arizona likely voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.77%.

If the elections were held today, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly sits at 46% support among likely voters, Republican Blake Masters at 33%, and Libertarian Marc Victor at 15%. One in 10 likely voters are still undecided. Victor's 9% jump from the previous poll in early September, highly driven by Republican support, could be due to Blake Masters' struggle with his candidate image among likely voters.

Diving into party lines, Masters' support from his respective party went down 7 points from the September poll (65% to 58%). He remained with 29% among Independents, and 4% of Democrats. As for the Libertarian candidate, Victor has his highest support among Republicans at 21% (+18 since September), 16% among Independents, and 5% among Democrats. Meanwhile, an unmovable 86% of Democrats indicated they would vote for Kelly, 46% among Independents, and even some Republicans (15%) peel off in the horserace.

Kelly's Coalition of Support

Kelly also performs well among key demographics, especially among women, self-identified moderates, voter-rich Maricopa County, and voters ages 55+ years old.

Masters' Coalition of Support

Masters' key demographics of support are highest among self-identified conservatives, those that live in Rural counties, and voters ages 35-44 years old.

When it comes to the candidates' image there is an 18-point difference between Kelly and Masters. Kelly has a net favorability of +5, whereas Masters has a net favorability of -13.

This plays into the overall theme, that within the past month, Victor is gaining some of Masters' support. A key takeaway to examine is that Masters is only capturing 65% of Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake's supporters, while Libertarian Marc Victor is grabbing 27% of Lake's supporters.

Even in the Generic State Ballot, among likely voters who said they would be voting for a Republican candidate, only 66% are supporting Masters and 25% are supporting Victor.

"Kelly is still hovering around the all-important fifty-percent threshold and Masters is losing ground with his base of support," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "The massive imbalance between Kelly and Masters on broadcast spending is having a noticeable impact on Masters' numbers."

"Running either too far left or too far right in Arizona's General Election is a hard sell to voters," said Noble. "Couple that with the large spending imbalance, Blake Masters could very well be on his way to becoming a Republican version of David Garcia in Arizona – unless some of these dynamics change in the race."

Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended live caller, IVR, and peer-to-peer text phone survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from October 4th to October 6th, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the likely voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and educational attainment. The sample size was 674 likely voters in Arizona, with an MoE of ± 3.77%.

Media Contacts:
Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 390-5248
Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (314) 287-1985