POLL: McSally Gains Ground in AZ Senate Race

McSally Gains Ground in AZ Senate Race

A significant difference in levels of support based on males/females

Less than one year from Election Day, the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally and challenger Mark Kelly is a statistical dead heat, according to a poll released Wednesday.

While McSally still trails the former astronaut, she is closing the gap compared to last quarter's Arizona Public Opinion poll.

"For the first time since Mark Kelly entered the Senate race, McSally has gained ground against her likely opponent," said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. "But the sitting senator still has a lot of ground to make up with important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat."

Diving deeper into the poll shows some troubling news for McSally. Republican candidates across the state have counted on the support of older voters for years. Currently, McSally is lagging behind in that constituency, only having the support of 43 percent of likely voters older than 55 compared to Kelly's 47 percent. Kelly is dominating among older women — leading McSally by almost 20 points, but that gap is nearly the mirror image of what is happening with older men. McSally is beating Kelly 51-39 with that group.

This split is also reflected in voters' opinions of the candidates themselves. Women aged 55 and older who have a favorable view of Mark Kelly outnumber those who hold unfavorable opinions of the former astronaut by a nearly 2:1 margin. However, McSally's favorability among that bloc is 18 points underwater. The pattern is reversed among older men. Men 55 and older have a positive 20 point net favorable opinion of McSally and only a negative 2 point net favorable opinion of Kelly.

Methodology: This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between December 3rd, 2019 and December 4th, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 628 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.91%.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 402-5181