Poll: Arizona Senate 2020 Matchups — McSally Holds Early Lead

Mark Kelly Keeps the Senate Close as Democratic Contenders Have Low Name ID

PHOENIX (Feb 14th, 2019) – Senator Martha McSally is defending her seat in the upcoming 2020 cycle. Early polling shows she currently holds an edge over her two likeliest contenders, though she is under the 50% threshold in each matchup.

While Mark Kelly is the only declared Democrat for the Arizona Senate, there is heavy speculation that Ruben Gallego will also declare.

"Kelly outperforms Gallego in several key areas meanwhile electoral problems for McSally continue to persist," said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights. "Arizona's most recent Senate race was a barn burner and with this early look we may be in for another."

The survey was conducted February 12–13, 2019, with a sample of 600 likely voters — blended live/auto caller, 47% cell / 53% landline, MoE ±4%.

Senator McSally leads Mark Kelly 46% to 44%. Kelly recently announced his bid and raised over $1 million in the 24 hours following his campaign video. Congressman Ruben Gallego, still making up his mind at the time of polling, trails McSally 49% to 41%.

Martha McSally is broadly popular with 51% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable. However, problems from the 2018 campaign persist — she has 46% unfavorables among those aged 65+. The chart below shows McSally's favorables and unfavorables by region.

In Maricopa, McSally holds only a net +1 — a county Sinema won by 4 points in 2018. She trails Kelly by 8 points there (Kelly leads 49-41%) and is even down to Gallego by 1 point (Gallego leads 45-44%).

Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego are not yet well known statewide: Kelly has 41% favorable / 21% unfavorable, Gallego 30% favorable / 23% unfavorable. The chart below shows their breakdown by region.

Both candidates remain unknown in rural areas (51% no opinion of Kelly; 59% no opinion of Gallego). Kelly outperforms Gallego because he is better known and better liked in Pima County — net +23% favorable with 75% name recognition vs. Gallego's net +7% with only 37% name ID.

"There's still time for the Democratic Senate candidates to define themselves to a large portion of Arizona, though Mark Kelly starts off in a much better position," said Noah Rudnick, senior data analyst at OH Predictive Insights. "This race will be decided in the upcoming months as Arizonans are exposed to millions of dollars in voter contact."

Methodology: Blended poll, 47% cell / 53% landline. Completed February 12–13, 2019. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-313-1837