For the First Time, Majority of Voters Optimistic About Next 30 Days of Coronavirus

Share of Voters Willing to Vaccinate Continues to Rise

PHOENIX (March 29th, 2021) – One year into COVID, Arizona voters are confident the worst is over, according to OH Predictive Insights' most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP).

With more than 2.5 million doses of vaccine distributed to Arizonans and new daily cases hovering in the triple digits, voters are confident the state has turned the corner on COVID-19.

In a sharp reversal from OHPI's January AZPOP survey – when 46% of voters expected the COVID situation to worsen – more voters now expect the COVID situation to improve in the month ahead than at any point since OHPI has been asking the question.

"Arizonans understand the end of COVID is near," OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. "They see an impressive vaccine rollout and declining cases. Voters are optimistic the worst of COVID-19 is behind."

The AZPOP is a survey of registered voters in the state of Arizona. The survey was conducted from March 8th to March 12th, 2021, included the opinions of 690 Arizona voters, and had a margin of error of 3.7%.

Among the groups most optimistic about the upcoming month are Republicans (65% expect conditions to improve), voters over the age of 65 (63%), and white voters (57%). Democrats (45%), Independents (43%), non-white voters (41%), and voters under 35 (35%) are the groups least optimistic about the upcoming 30 days.

While voters' hopes for the month ahead are high, concern over the virus remains high too. Six in 10 (59%) Arizona voters are extremely or moderately concerned about the spread of the Coronavirus — statistically equivalent to the share of voters who were at the same level of concern in January's AZPOP (64%).

As has been the case in every poll OHPI has done on the subject of the Coronavirus since the beginning of the pandemic, voters' concern about the outbreak is closely tied to their party registration. Democrats are now twice as likely as Republicans to be at this heightened level of concern, with Independents falling in between.

Going back briefly to the topic of voters' expectations for the month ahead, even voters who are extremely or moderately concerned about the pandemic are more optimistic than not about the next 30 days. Nearly half (45%) of voters at the highest levels of concern expect conditions to improve, while one-quarter (28%) expect them to worsen. Voters who are not particularly concerned ("slightly" or "not at all" concerned) are very positive — two-thirds (68%) expect things to get better, while only 4% expect them to get worse.

On the topic of vaccine distribution, the share of voters unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine continues to fall. In September of 2020, 38% of voters would have refused a vaccine and an additional 23% were unsure. By January of 2021, 25% would refuse and 13% were undecided. Now, only 19% would refuse a vaccine, and 12% are unsure.

"The public's confidence in the vaccine is increasing as more people get shots and few side effects are reported," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss.

Another optimistic data point: Only 12% of the most vulnerable portion of the electorate – those 65 and older – would be unwilling to take a vaccine; 82% have been or would be vaccinated. The age groups least willing to take a vaccine were those between 18–34 (26%) and 35–44 (29%). According to the Arizona Department of Health Services, those under 45 make up less than 5% of all COVID-19 deaths in Arizona, while those over 65 represent 75% of Arizona's COVID deaths as of March 26th, 2021.

PDF Poll toplines and crosstabs

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey by OH Predictive Insights from March 8th to March 12th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. Sample size: 690 registered voters, MoE ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Note: For comparing 2021 data to 2020 data, surveys conducted in 2021 were of registered voters conducted via online opt-in panel, while surveys in 2020 were of likely voters conducted via phone-based live caller or live-caller/IVR.

Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (480) 313-1837 | Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (602) 687-3034