Election Integrity: So Last Year

A Majority of Arizona Voters are Confident in the Security of Arizona's Elections

PHOENIX (March 2, 2023)– After three years and two elections, a majority of Arizona voters are still confident in the security of Arizona's elections. Recent litigation surrounding the administration of the 2022 Arizona midterm elections has brought forth buzzing discourse surrounding election integrity. O.H. Predictive Insights' latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey takes aim at measuring the impact of election fraud claims on voters' confidence in the state's electoral process.

This AZPOP, conducted from January 31 – February 9, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Confidence in the 2022 Midterm Elections

Four months removed from the midterms, a majority (55%) of Arizona voters are extremely or moderately confident that the 2022 midterm elections in Arizona were administered fairly. This includes 8 in 10 Democrats and half (52%) of Independents, compared to 36% of Republicans.

One of the largest determinants of a respondent's likelihood to maintain confidence in the security of Arizona's midterm elections is from where they get their news. Weekly consumers of CNN and MSNBC are significantly more likely (76% and 79%, respectively) to report being either extremely or moderately confident in Arizona's 2022 midterm elections, compared to only 44% of weekly Fox News viewers and 45% of weekly Newsmax viewers.

"Since the 2020 audit of the presidential election, our polling has seen that national and local news coverage surrounding the integrity of Arizona elections has a clear influence on how voters view election security in the state," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.

The Lake Effect

Following Arizona's gubernatorial election, Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Kari Lake has taken a page out of the election-denier strategy book by bringing a slew of cases to the courts with claims of a stolen gubernatorial election. Despite some election denialism among the GOP, 75% of Arizona registered voters believe the new Arizona Governor was elected legitimately.

Among the three-quarters of voters saying there is no evidence of election fraud include firm majorities of Democrats (93%), Independents (76%), and Republicans (58%).

"Regardless of the narrative of a stolen gubernatorial election coming from Kari Lake, the acceptance of Katie Hobbs' win is shared in majorities across party lines," said Mike Noble. "In fact, voters are 20% more sure that the Governor's race was accurate than they are confident in the midterm elections as a whole."

And From our Contest Winner…

OHPI held a contest prior to the 2022 midterm election, inviting the public to submit their predictions for the outcome of top races in Arizona. Paul Weich, an attorney and founder/publisher of ArizonasLaw.org and ArizonasPolitics.com, earned the right to add a question to our survey. He asked about election security in a broader sense and we found that 55% of Arizona voters – including 78% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and 39% of Republicans – are either extremely or moderately confident in the integrity of Arizona's elections.

OHPI also asked this same question in the July 2021 AZPOP, which found a similar share (59%) of voters extremely or moderately confident in the integrity of Arizona elections in general.

"We had a ton of submissions and a lot of activity, and we wanted to use this contest to engage our audience and make our polls more interactive," said Noble.

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from January 31st, 2023 – February 9th, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,000 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.1%.

Media Contacts:
Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837