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Key Survey Insights

●     Biden currently leads Trump by 5-points in Arizona, 49% to 44% in early General election matchup

  • OHPI tested the top-six potential Democratic nominees against Trump, with the exception of Biden, they all trail between 5 to 9 points
  • Trump is currently losing 18% of Republican voters to Biden and is trailing in the heavily populated Maricopa County by 10-points

  •  Trump is currently losing 18% of Republican voters to Biden and is trailing in the heavily populated Maricopa County by 10-points

●     Approximately, 70% of Democratic respondents that are undecided on other Democratic candidates would support Joe Biden against Trump

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PHOENIX (May 7th, 2019) – Donald Trump narrowly captured Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes in 2016 – besting Hillary Clinton by just 3.5 points.

A new poll released Tuesday shows Trump could be the first Republican to lose Arizona since Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996. The poll shows if the Democrats nominate former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump won’t be able to take Arizona for granted.

In a poll conducted after he formally announced his run, Biden leads Trump by 5 points according to the Arizona Public Opinion Poll. A poll conducted in February showed Biden and Trump tied at 46 points.           

“The Internet was barely a thing the last time a Democrat presidential candidate won Arizona,” Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “Hillary Clinton’s dedicated significant resources to win Arizona but to no avail. This poll shows Joe Biden could turn Arizona into a true battleground state in 2020.”

With so many already declared Democratic candidates in the race, OHPI took the top-six based on their polling average from Real Clear Politics.  The poll was conducted May 1-2, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4% MOE.

Of the top six candidates, no one other than Biden came within the margin of error. However, also of note, Trump doesn’t cross the 50 percent threshold in any of these hypothetical matchups.

“The Biden bump we have seen in other states carried over to Arizona,” Noble said. “Fifteen months before the Arizona primary, Biden is the Democratic candidate best positioned to take on the president. If Democrats put electability above all else, Biden could run away with the nomination and the White House.”

“Nationally and in Arizona, Biden is currently the king of the hill, although just like in the childhood game many of us used to play at recess, the question remains if he will be on top of the hill when the bell rings,” said Noble. “The winners and losers of the 2020 election cycle will greatly depend on who ultimately lands up becoming the Democratic nominee for President.”

Methodology: This blended poll was conducted via live caller and IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on May 1, 2019, and May 2, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

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Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 402-5181

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