Arizona Opposition to Marijuana Legalization Goes Up in Smoke

Support for Measure Crosses 60% Mark

PHOENIX (July 21, 2020)- More than 6 in 10 Arizona voters favor marijuana legalization, which will be on the ballot for the second time in four years.

According to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a monthly tracking poll of 600 likely Arizona General Election Voters — the measure earns broad support along a cross-section of voters in the state. Just 32 percent of respondents oppose legalization.

“Four years ago, marijuana legalization nearly came to fruition,” says Mike Noble, Chief of Research at OH Predictive Insights. “And less than four months before Election Day, Arizona is on the cusp of allowing the adults to use recreational pot.”

The latest poll shows marijuana legalization support at 62 percent, a significant increase from the last time OHPI released its legalization tracking numbers in December 2019. Then the initiative earned the support of 51% of voters while 42% were opposed.

The ballot measure also earns support from some demographics typically opposed to such measures. More than three in five (62%) of suburbanites support the measure, exactly the level of support the measure earns statewide. This puts suburbanites in a statistical tie with urban and rural voters in terms of levels of support.

Marijuana legalization also earns the support of parents of young children. Voters who have children under the age of 18 living at home are less likely than childless voters, but still more likely than voters with adult children to support making marijuana legal for adult use in Arizona.

“Unlike 2016, no credible group has raised significant money to oppose the marijuana legalization and that could be the biggest difference in 2020,” Noble said.

There is one constituency still opposed to the legalization of marijuana for adult use in Arizona: Republicans – the state’s largest party. While Democrats are pro-pot by a 58-point margin (75-17) and Independents by a slightly smaller 46-point margin (70-24), Republicans are the measure’s last hold outs — even though their traditionally strong opposition is wavering. More than four in ten (44%) GOPers support the measure, but a majority (52%) are opposed.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 67.8% Live Caller/ 32.2% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 7th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.
Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,  h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

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