State of the State

Trump Approval Holds Steady; Congressional Republicans Fall Behind; Education Now #1 Issue

 

PHOENIX (March 6th, 2020) – The 2020 election year is going to bring attention to Arizona, the likes of which many voters in the state have never seen before. Once a ruby-red state, Arizona is now home to what looks to be one of the closest Senate elections this cycle and will be at the epicenter of an extremely hard-fought campaign between Donald Trump and his to-be-determined Democratic opponent.

The Arizona Statewide survey was conducted on March 3 and March 4, 2020, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4% MOE.

“Education is now the #1 most pressing issue facing Arizonans overtaking Immigration in the Grand Canyon State, ” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights.

As voters brace for a torrent of media focus on the state, Arizona is primed to be home to see its closest margin in a presidential race since Bill Clinton won the state by 2 points in 1996. A key indicator of how well President Trump performs in the state will be how voters feel about his job approval.

As of today, Arizonans’ opinion of the President has tapered off after bouncing back from his lowest point in OHPI’s tracking poll in August of 2019.

Donald Trump’s low numbers have also translated to the Republicans on the generic ballot. After narrowing the gap to a tie in December, Republicans are now down 4% to Democrats in the latest Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP).

This poll marks only the second time since OHPI began asking the generic ballot question that Democrats have led on our AZPOP, and is a good sign for the party hoping to fend off a challenger to Rep. Tom O’Halleran in Arizona’s 1st congressional district, a perennial Republican target and to unseat Republican David Schweikert from his hold on Arizona’s suburban 6th district. However, even with these results, Congressional Democrats should be breathing a sigh of relief. With 8 months before election day and the amount of time and money that is going to be poured into Arizona over that time, anything can happen.

Looking at the voter’s opinion of Arizona itself, Arizonans are satisfied with the way the state is being run. 40% of respondents say Arizona is headed on the right track, while 36% say the state is headed off in the wrong direction. The only group of people who did not respond positively to how the state is being run are Democrats, 42% of whom say that AZ is headed in the wrong direction and 36% say it is on the right track.  This number is considerably smaller than Republicans and Independents, who think the state is on the right track by 8% and 10% margins, respectively.

Last, but most certainly not least, when asked what the most pressing issue facing Arizona is, more Arizonans said Education than Immigration. This is the first time since October of 2018, immediately before the midterm elections and at the height of the “migrant caravan” issue that immigration has been knocked from the top spot.

Stay tuned to OHPI for the latest information on Arizona and where next week you’ll get to see Arizonans’ opinion on the Democratic Primary, the coronavirus, the McSally-Kelly Senate Race, and more!

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Methodology: This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between March 3rd, 2020 and March 4th, 2020, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,  h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-687-3034 or submit a request online.

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