FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                       June 19, 2018    

Republicans Struggle to Hold on to Moderates

With gloomier outlook on Trump and Arizona, moderate Republicans show signs of anger

PHOENIX (June 19, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights(OHPI) of likely Arizona 2018 Republican primary voters takes a look at the likeliest revolt happening within the Arizona Republican party – self-identified Moderates. This group is discontent with Trump, and it’s reflected as they see Arizona heading in the wrong direction, even as their fellow partisans hold full control of the state and the nation.

“Currently, the GOP is in a real pickle for the upcoming midterm elections based on our numbers,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research polling company.

OHPI asked which branch of the Republican party the respondent believed that they belonged too, and there was a split, but approximately 1 in 4 voters described themselves as moderates.

 The leading disagreement between moderates and other Republican party members is President Trump. For non-moderates, Trump’s approval rating was over 90%, with very few respondents disapproving. Among moderates, the President’s approval rating was 36%, while his disapproval rating increased to over 30%.

This data also applies to other aspects of politics. Moderate Republicans are less likely to believe that Arizona is on the right track for a positive future. Approximately 37% of voters consider that the state is moving in a negative direction.

“Republicans can turn it around, but right now they have a massive problem with the attitude of the moderates in their party,” said Noah Rudnick, data analyst of OH Predictive Insights. “This group may not be exceedingly instrumental in the party, but they have an incredible influence in the November elections. This is the group to watch as the deciding factor in several key races.”

Methodology: This IVR telephone survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 11th thru 12th, 2018, from a likely Arizona 2018 Republican Primary voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, gender, and age. 90% of respondents were Republican and 10% were Independent voters. 100% of respondents were completed via landline. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ±4%.

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Media Contact:  Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, 602-402-5181

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.

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