FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 21, 2018
Previous Political Experience is No Help in the Republican Primary
Trump Loyalists See Past Government Work as Liability
PHOENIX (June 21, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights(OHPI) of likely Arizona 2018 Republican primary voters asked whether previous experience as an elected official made voters more or less likely to vote for that candidate.
“The Tea Party has handed the torch to the Trump base on wanting ‘outsider’ candidates,” said Noah Rudnick, a data analyst with OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research polling company. “The era of D.C. bashing and establishment bashing has only just begun.”
Overall, respondents were unfazed. But if past experience in office caused a reaction, a negative reaction led the way by a 2:1 margin.
Whether or not political experience is more of a hinderance varies based on the ideology of the respondent. Among self-identified Moderates this had no net effect. Trump Republicans that stated an opinion had the most visceral reaction to those with experience, by about a 4:1 ratio. Christian Conservatives were almost 2:1 against candidates having previous elected or government experience. It is important to note that when you total up the self-identified Trump Republicans and Christian Conservatives that equals 63% or almost two-thirds of the GOP likely voter base in Arizona.
Political scientists Sarah Treul and Rachel Porter discovered this trend recently by showing the explosive growth in the number of outsiders winning in the Republican primaries in recent cycles.
“When I came across the Treul/Porter findings I was flabbergasted,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. “Now, based on what we see in our own poll, we can’t help but lend more credence to their report.”
Methodology: This IVR telephone survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 11th thru 12th, 2018, from a likely Arizona 2018 Republican Primary voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, gender, and age. 90% of respondents were Republican and 10% were Independent voters. 100% of respondents were completed via landline. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ±4%.
Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, 602-402-5181
About OH Predictive Insights
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.