FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                  March 13th, 2020

Biden the electable Democrat in 2020 race

Biden leads Trump by 6 points in new poll

PHOENIX (March 13th, 2020) –If electability is the most important consideration for Arizona Democrats, then former Vice President Joe Biden may get the most support in next week’s Presidential Preference Election.

A new poll shows Biden leading President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup by 6 points. However, the same poll shows Trump beating Sen. Bernie Sanders by 7 points.

This Arizona Public Opinion poll (AZPOP) is a statewide survey and was conducted on March 3 and 4, with a sample of 600 likely voters. The poll utilized a blended phone survey and had a Margin of Error of +/-4%.

“If Arizona Democrats want a shot at flipping Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes in their favor for the first time since 1996, former VP Joe Biden is the wise choice on March 17,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “The negatives attached to Bernie Sanders may be too great to overcome to put Arizona in the blue column in November.”

Biden’s strength against the president in Arizona relative to Sanders is a common trend seen in previous AZPOPs. For instance, in the December poll, Trump was beating Sanders by 13 percent, and Biden by only 2. However, since December, both Democratic candidates have made up a considerable amount of ground. Sanders has cut his deficit in half and Biden has gained 8 points in the same timeframe (from being down 2 to now up 6).

The reason for this performance gap between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden is that less than three-quarters of the respondents who said they would vote for Biden in a head to head match up with Donald Trump also said they would vote for Sanders if he were to be the nominee. While very few (5%) of Biden voters said they would vote for Trump if Sanders were his Democratic opponent, more than 20 percent are undecided in that hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

A key factor why Sanders is trailing Trump compared to Biden is due to Biden’s support among Hispanic/Latino voters. Unlike Arizona’s neighboring state Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino voters delivered Sanders a strong win in the state’s Democratic primary, Hispanic voters in Arizona are considerably less supportive of the Vermont senator. Biden is beating Trump by more than 35 percent (63/27) among this group, whereas Bernie is leading by less than 10 (34/27).

With the small portion of Arizona’s electorate which is neither white nor Hispanic, Bernie Sanders is also underperforming the former vice president. Biden leads Trump 60 percent to 30 percent with these voters; Sanders only leads 45 to 33.

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Methodology:  This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between March 3rd, 2020 and March 4th, 2020, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,  h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

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