Schweikert Locked in Close Race Against Tipirneni
Congressman Leads Challenger by 3
PHOENIX (October 7th, 2020)- Congressman David Schweikert’s ethics problems are translating in diminished support among voters in Arizona’s 6th congressional district.
Schweikert, a Republican who agreed to pay a $50,000 fine after the U.S. House Ethics Committee investigation into transgressions in his campaign and House office, leads Democrat Hiral Tipirneni 49-46 in a district President Trump won by double digits. The live-caller survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 23rd to 27th.
“Rep. Schweikert’s ethics troubles provided an opening for Democrats to take a reliably Republican seat,” says OHPI Chief of Research, Mike Noble. “With an immense spending advantage and a politically wounded sitting congressman, Tipirneni has made this a competitive race.”
One of the drivers behind this district’s newfound competitiveness is its college-educated population. As the most college-educated district in the state, the GOP’s nationwide slide with these voters has been on stark display. Among voters with a college degree, Hiral Tipirneni leads David Schweikert by 5 points. Schweikert is up by 10 points over Tiperneni among those without.
There are also notable divides among other key demographics. Tipirneni leads Schweikert 50% – 47% among women, while Schweikert is up 8 points with men. Schweikert is carrying the suburban portion of the district 51% – 44%, but Tipirneni leads 52% – 43% in the smaller urban portion.
These suburban areas are going to be crucial if Schweikert hopes to win. As seen in the map above comparing Schweikert’s performance in the 2018 US House race and Martha McSally’s performance in the 2018 Senate race – there were a number of precincts that split their tickets for Republican Schweikert and Democrat Sinema, most of which were in the North Phoenix suburbs. Holding on to a number of these suburban centers contributed to Schweikert’s 8-point larger victory than McSally in the district.
Additionally, the presidential race in this district is shaping up to be even closer than the House race. President Trump and Joe Biden are locked in a statistical dead heat, Trump earned the support of 49% of the electorate to Biden’s 48%. The strikingly small (1%) number of undecided voters in the Presidential race here is yet another sign that campaigns are going to need to focus just as much effort on turning out their supporters as they are on convincing people to become new ones.
Another interesting dynamic of the 2020 Election is the partisan divide over mail-in voting. This schism – Republicans favoring in-person methods, Democrats favoring mail-in voting – may also cause some confusion on Election Night. More specifically, the winner of this close race may not be known on election night as ballots continue to be counted. Eight in ten (81%) of Hiral Tipirneni supporters plan on voting early and only 13% plan to vote on Election Day. Inversely, 44% of David Schweikert voters plan to cast their ballots before November 3rd, while 53% say they will do so on the day itself.
“Arizona must be prepared for the fact that many close races may not be known for a number of days after polls close and that the leader on Election night may not be the winner once all votes are tallied,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as a 100% Live Caller Phone survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 23rd to September 27th, 2020, from an Arizona CD6 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 531 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.3%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, email@example.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.