OH Predictive Insight

June 9, 2016 M.Conner@OwensHarkey.com

Poll: Biggs Has Early Lead in Arizona’s
Fifth Congressional District

Donald Trump Polls Low Among LDS Community

PHOENIX (June 9, 2016) — Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which holds the reputation of one of the securest Republican seats in the country, is set to elect a new congressman this November. With preliminary indications, Arizona Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs has an early lead.

However, in a survey of 462 likely special election voters, 57 percent said they are undecided on who to vote for as their next Congressman.  Even with the high undecideds Andy Biggs has as two to one lead over all of his opponents.

AZ 5th Congressional District – GOP Primary
June 2, 2016 Results
Andy Biggs 21%
Don Stapley 10%
Christine Jones 7%
Justin Olson 5%
Unsure/Undecided 57%

“The LDS community has a 35 percent undecided rate which is the lowest in all demographic categories.  Catholic, Christian Evangelical and Protestant voters are approximately 60 percent undecided,” Mike Noble, Pollster & Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights said. “Clearly Biggs’ lead is significantly larger among LDS voters and he is dominating in every major religious category. When it comes to Biggs’ base, it is a melting pot of support.”

Religious Breakdown of Support
Christian Evangelical
Latter Day Saints
Andy Biggs 17% 24% 23% 30%
Don Stapley 9% 6% 8% 19%
Christine Jones 7% 1% 2% 12%
Justin Olson 8% 5% 7% 4%
Unsure/Undecided 59% 64% 60% 35%


Donald Trump fav/unfav by religion
Christian Evangelical
Latter Day Saints
Favorable 67% 76% 74% 60%
Unfavorable 30% 20% 21% 37%
No Opinion 3% 4% 4% 3%

Noble added, “It is evident that Donald Trump is not a popular candidate among the LDS community despite him being the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee. If the LDS community is not motivated to vote due to Trump’s presence on the ticket, it could negatively impact voter turnout for the state’s congressional election.”

Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on June 2nd, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican Primary voters across Arizona who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the upcoming Arizona Republican Primary for Congress. The sample size was 462 completed surveys, with a Margin of Error of +/-4.56%

About OH Predictive Insights
With Owens Harkey Advertising’s marketing and creative service resources coupled with OH Strategic Communication’s unparalleled messaging and strategic planning expertise, OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing. Leading Arizona pollster Michael Noble from MBQF Consulting brings proprietary social statistics software and services to OH Predictive Insights providing clients with tools to solve their most challenging problems. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159.