Biden Maintains Small Lead in Arizona

Former V.P. Leads Trump by Three Points

PHOENIX (October 27th, 2020)- Vice President Biden still holds a small lead over President Trump in the battle for Arizona’s pivotal 11 electoral votes, according to OH Predictive Insight’s (OHPI) last Arizona Public Opinion Pulse of the election cycle. Biden earns the support of 49% of likely voters to Trump’s 46%.

The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen garnered 3% and only 1% of voters were undecided.

Trump’s strongest support is found among Republicans (88%), men (54%), white voters (54%), and rural Arizona (54%). Biden, on the other hand, leans on Democrats (93%), Hispanic/Latino voters (60%), voters in Pima County (58%), and women (57%) for his strongest support. 

The pool of voters left for candidates to persuade is shrinking by the day, as six in ten respondents said they had already cast their ballots. In fact, less than one quarter (23%) of the voters who had not already cast their ballots said they were waiting to do so on Election Day. In an unusual breaking of tradition, it appears that most Democrats have already returned their ballots while many Republicans are waiting to do so closer to Election Day.

“Republicans are putting their faith in good weather and short lines Tuesday,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “Something as simple as a light drizzle may cost the GOP crucial votes in an already close race.”

In the state’s other race with national consequences, former astronaut Mark Kelly maintains his advantage over incumbent Sen. Martha McSally. Half (50%) of Arizona voters prefer Kelly while 45% prefer McSally.

One of the unique aspects of the 2020 election is the degree to which McSally’s fortunes are tied to the President’s. While John McCain outran the Republican presidential nominee each time he appeared on the ballot with one, it does not appear McSally will follow the trend.

In another divergence from the norm, the Senate race in Arizona is drawing enormous amounts of money. The amount raised by both candidates is dwarfing the amounts raised by the candidates in Arizona’s Senate race just two years ago. At the close of the 3rd Quarter of 2020, McSally raised just over $50 million, compared to just $13 million at the same time in 2018. An even starker difference is Mark Kelly’s $83 million raised in 2020 and Kyrsten Sinema’s 2018 total of $16 million.

Proposition 207, a statewide ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, appears poised for passage. The ballot measure is supported by six in ten voters and opposed by just 36%. Large majorities of Democrats and Independents support it, as well as 43% of Republicans.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as a 100% Live Caller phone survey, 68% cell phones/32% land lines. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) from October 22nd to October 25th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The call list is based on the most current Arizona Secretary of State voter file. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 716 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: For this poll, OHPI’s last before the 2020 General Election, OHPI transitioned away from our usual methodology. Previous AZPOP’s were used primarily as tracking polls. Because of this, the sample make-up was kept constant from poll to poll in order to more easily identify shifts in mood in Arizona’s electorate. This poll had a different composition – most notably we intentionally increased the shares of Hispanic/Latino voters and non-college educated voters in the survey sample to bring the composition of the sample more in line with what we believe the electorate will look like on Election Day. Not only did we change the composition of the sample for this last poll, we also changed the collection method. We surveyed more than our usual 600 voters in order to obtain a smaller margin of error and a more accurate representation of the election result in Arizona. We also conducted this as a 100% live caller survey, instead of our usual blended live caller/IVR approach.

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights services political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. 

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