Biden Extends Lead in Arizona

Former Vice President Outspending Trump 10:1 on Arizona Airwaves

PHOENIX (September 14th, 2020)- After a summer of improving numbers for Donald Trump, the President once again faces daunting odds in Arizona. According to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), Trump’s support has fallen to 42%, and former Vice President Joe Biden has risen to 52%. Biden’s 10-point lead is his largest in an AZPOP poll, and his 52% support matches his high watermark set back in April of 2020.

The AZPOP is a monthly survey of likely voters in the state of Arizona conducted by OH Predictive Insights. This edition of the AZPOP also saw Trump lower than 43% the first time this cycle.

“It is remarkable how steady Trump’s support has been. On his best day, Trump has been unable to crack 46 percent; on his worst, he hasn’t dipped below 43 percent,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble, “Until today.”

Diving deeper into the results of this month’s survey reveals other troubling news for the Trump campaign. He now appears to be struggling with a core component of his 2016 base – older voters. In particular, older Republicans.

“Whether it be his handling of the coronavirus pandemic or a recent spate of tell-all books, Donald Trump is turning off older voters,” says Noble. “Bringing this group of voters back into the fold is imperative if Trump hopes to keep Arizona in his column in November.”

In March, before the COVID pandemic had fully hit Arizona, Trump had the support of 78 percent of Republicans 55 and older, with 14 percent were supporting Joe Biden. Now, only 69 percent of older GOP voters say they will vote for the President, while Biden’s support among the group has nearly doubled to 26 percent.

Other than making in-roads with older Republicans, Joe Biden is improving his standing in the Grand Canyon State by winning the battle for the airwaves. According to data provided by the ad tracker, Medium Buying, in each of the last four weeks, dating back to August 15th, the Biden campaign has spent at least three times the amount that the Trump team has on broadcast advertisements. In three of those weeks, he outspent the Trump campaign at least 10 to one.

That is not to say that viewers have not been exposed to any Pro-Trump messages. Over the same period, PACs supporting the President spent more than $3 million on broadcast advertisements. Pro-Biden PACs, by comparison, spent $824k.

“Like nearly every other Presidential battleground state over the last month, Arizona has seen incredibly lopsided spending advantage in favor of Vice President Biden. The bottom line is: President Trump has been outspent over the last month, and it’s clearly having an impact on the race as we move from the summer into full-on fall campaign season,” said Founder and President of Medium Buying, Nick Everhart.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 46.5% Live Caller/53.5% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 8th to September 10th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sampling methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.

Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. 

About Medium Buying:  Our name Medium is an homage to the fact that media and advertising has become incredibly complicated and fragmented over the last several years. It used to be broadcast TV, cable and radio – now it’s multiple platforms on an array of devices. Today, a good ad buying company is focused on getting powerful creative or content in front of their target audience regardless of the medium it takes to reach them.

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