OHPI Polling Forecasted Arizona Ballot Results
PHOENIX (November 17th, 2020)- With all of the votes counted, OH Predictive Insights celebrates correctly predicting the results of the state’s most important contests. As unofficial results from Arizona’s 2020 general election are finalized, the results closely match the OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) final poll of the 2020 Election season.
“As prominent national pollsters wonder what went wrong with their state polling, I’m pleased our polling and turnout models accurately reflected Arizona’s electorate,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. “Every contest we polled, we polled correctly.”
The final OHPI 2020 poll, released one week before Election Day, showed Joe Biden earning the support of 49% of likely voters to Donald Trump’s 46%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%, meaning that the poll expected Biden’s support to fall between 45.3% and 52.7%, and Donald Trump’s support to fall between 42.3% and 49.7%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s unofficial results show both candidates well within the OHPI final range, with Joe Biden at 49.39% and Donald Trump at 49.09%.
The U.S. Senate race in Arizona is similarly in line with OHPI expectations. The OHPI final election poll put Mark Kelly’s support at 50% of Arizona likely voters and Martha McSally’s support at 45%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%, meaning that the poll expected Mark Kelly’s support to fall between 46.3% and 53.7%, and Martha McSally’s support to fall between 41.3% and 48.7%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office had unofficial results showing one candidate well within the OHPI final range with Mark Kelly at 51.17% and Martha McSally 0.13% outside the range at 48.83%. The results of the poll more accurately reflected the race than the final polling average on RealClearPolitics.
Polling on Arizona’s Proposition 207, the initiative to make recreational marijuana legal, is also on the mark. In the final OHPI poll, 60% of respondents supported the proposition. Considering margins of error, the support share was expected to fall between 56.3% and 63.7%. Unofficial results show 60.03% of voters voted in favor of Prop 207.
In the race for Arizona’s most contentious U.S. Congressional seat, OHPI conducted a poll of the 6th Congressional District in September 2020 to find David Schweikert leading Hiral Tipirneni 49% to 46%. Due to the poll’s margin of error at 4.3%, the range for Schweikert’s support could fall between 44.7% and 53.3%, while Tipirneni’s could fall between 41.7% and 50.3%. OHPI is once again matching polling with unofficial vote totals as Schweikert defended his seat against Tipirneni, 52.17% to 47.83%.
The 2020 election cycle once again proves the value of having a pollster that knows the ins and outs of the local electorate – not one who parachutes in from out of state every time election season rolls around. The 2020 election showed, perhaps more than any previous election, that knowledge of the local political landscape combined with sound methodology provides accurate results.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as a 100% Live Caller phone survey, 68% cell phones/32% land lines. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) from October 22nd to October 25th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The call list is based on the most current Arizona Secretary of State voter file. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 716 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: For this poll, OHPI’s last before the 2020 General Election, OHPI transitioned away from our usual methodology. Previous AZPOP’s were used primarily as tracking polls, because of this, the sample make-up was kept constant from poll to poll in order to more easily identify shifts in mood in Arizona’s electorate. This poll had a different composition – most notably we intentionally increased the shares of Hispanic/Latino voters and non-college educated voters in the survey sample to bring the composition of the sample more in line with what we believe the electorate will look like on Election Day. Not only did we change the composition of the sample for this last poll, we also changed the collection method. We surveyed more than our usual 600 voters in order to obtain a smaller margin of error and a more accurate representation of the election result in Arizona. We also conducted this as a 100% live caller survey, instead of our usual blended live caller/IVR approach.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and corporate clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.