FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Sept. 12, 2018
McSally Takes Flight, but Sinema is Within Striking Distance
Martha McSally Takes the Lead as Key Bloc Warms Up to Trump
PHOENIX (Sept. 12, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), a Phoenix-based research polling company, shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has taken a lead on Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, passing her with 49% of the likely vote. Sinema, who has maintained a lead above McSally up until this point, is down to 46%.
“With the race between Sinema and McSally heating up, this is not just the hottest race in the country – it’s a scorcher,” says Managing Partner and Chief Pollster Mike Noble. “It will be interesting to see if McSally is able to maintain her lead above Sinema in these next few weeks leading up to the all-important early voting.”
McSally’s lead comes on the back of a change of heart among a vital demographic group that has been cold to her and Trump in the past: middle-aged women, especially those with college degrees. Trump’s approval has also made a drastic change from the last OHPI poll, when Trump was underwater with these swing demographics, to now: Approval has increased by double digits, including a 17% increase among 55 to 64-year-olds.
Trump’s approval increase has helped propel McSally to the lead, as McSally’s share has been tied to Trump’s approval in the past. When breaking down McSally’s lead among the same swing demographics, the numbers change from being behind with this group to holding leads, even some in commanding double-digits. This demographic is regarded as the swing voters pulling away from Republicans this cycle. This month, they have swung in the Republican direction.
“Older, educated women who regard themselves as more moderate will be the decisive voters this Senate cycle,” says Noah Rudnick, data analyst for OHPI. “They moved here more in favor of Trump and it resulted in a shift in the Senate race. We will be keeping an eye on them in future polls to see how sticky and committed this vote is.”
Methodology: This 50% cell phone and 50% automated phone poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on September 5, 2018 and September 6, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 597 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.01%. Poll report for the General Election poll can be viewed here.
Media Contact: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, 480-414-8770
About OH Predictive Insights
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.