Kelly maintains lead in latest Arizona Senate poll

McSally Losing Ground with Older Voters

PHOENIX (March 11th, 2020) –Eight months out from election day and former astronaut Mark Kelly is leading Senator Martha McSally in the race to finish the late-Sen. John McCain’s six-year Senate term.

Kelly has the support of 49 percent of Arizona likely voters according to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion poll (AZPOP) while McSally earns 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

The Arizona Public Opinion poll is a statewide survey and was conducted on March 3 and March 4, 2020, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey with a Margin of Error of +/-4%.

Mark Kelly’s 7-point lead is twice as large as his lead in last quarter’s AZPOP poll where he lead McSally by 3 points — 47 percent to 44 percent.

“The battle for control of the Senate Chamber may very well come down to historically ruby-red Arizona,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. “While there are few undecided voters in the Senate race, a quarter of likely voters do not have an opinion of Mark Kelly – giving Team McSally an opening to define the first-time candidate.”

McSally’s favorability among Arizona voters has continued its decline over the past year. In February 2019, 10 percent more voters had a positive opinion of the Senator than had a negative one. Today her favorability is underwater, with 47 percent of voters holding a negative opinion of McSally and only 43 percent viewing her positively.

A key component of Kelly’s rise since December is his performance among older voters — usually a group which is solidly Republican. In December, Kelly was trailing McSally among men aged 55 and older by 12 points (39 percent to 51 percent), but leading among older women. However, in this quarter’s poll, Kelly has closed that gap and is now tied with McSally at 45 percent of older men, and is still leading with women 55 and older.

While Kelly has been making inroads with certain segments of traditional Republican voters, McSally’s base is still holding strong. Kelly is only getting the support of 7 percent of registered Republicans, compared to McSally’s 83 percent. McSally is also leading Kelly with white, non-Hispanic voters — the largest ethnicity group in Arizona by population — by 5 points (48 percent to 43 percent).

Democrats are united (90%) for Kelly, Republicans are less-united (83%) for McSally, and Independents are strongly favoring (58/29) Kelly at this point in the Arizona Senate race.

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Methodology:  This blended phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between March 3rd, 2020 and March 4th, 2020, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,  h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

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