Ducey’s Approval Falls as Coronavirus Cases Rise

Voters’ concern reaches level unseen since stay-at-home order

PHOENIX (July 13th, 2020) – Voter concern about coronavirus matches the record level of increases in cases the state has seen since May.

Two-thirds of Arizona voters are extremely or moderately concerned about the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of at least 2,200 residents. Atthe same time, Gov. Doug Duey’s high approval rating has also suffered as cases and deaths rise. Roughly one-third of voters approve of Ducey’s handling of the virus, but 63 percent of voters give him poor marks.

At the beginning of June, Arizonans broadly approved of Ducey’s performance 59-37. According to July’s Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a monthly poll released by OH Predictive Insights of 600 likely voters in Arizona – Ducey is upside down 35-63.

“As goes the coronavirus so goes Doug Ducey’s fortunes among Arizona voters,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “When the outbreak was being contained, Ducey was popular. Now that cases are on the rise, his disapproval rating is too.”

In addition to disapproving of the Governor’s COVID handling, a majority of voters (52 percent) are extremely concerned about the spread of the virus. This is not only a record high, breaking April’s record when 45 percent of voters were extremely concerned, it is the first time dating back to March when OHPI began asking the question, that more than half of voters said they were extremely concerned.

However, not all voters are equally concerned about the spread of Coronavirus. Continuing a trend seen in previous AZPOPs, while almost 90 percent of Democrats and two-thirds of Independents are highly concerned about the outbreak, less than half of Republicans agree. In fact, 35 percent of GOP voters are only slightly concerned or not concerned at all about COVID, compared to 22 percent of Independents and only 7 percent of Democrats.

In April – the last time concern over the Coronavirus was as high as it is today – Ducey enjoyed a net +23 approval rating (59-36). However, in the 3 months since then, that number has fallen 51 points and now sits at -28 (35-63). One of the driving forces behind this fall is that the voters who are more concerned

about COVID approved of the job Ducey was doing in April but now think he is doing a poor job. To be precise, 55 percent of voters with a high level of concern, approved of the job Ducey was doing to combat the outbreak in April — today that number is 22 percent.

Since the lifting of the stay-at-home order, Arizonans are now more willing to venture out of their homes. In April, when the stay-at-home order was still in effect, only 16 percent of voters were still going outside. Now, the share of those voters has more than doubled (35%). Another phenomenon Arizona has seen is that many of the cases (65% according to AZ Dept. of Health Services as of July 9th, 2020) are among younger people – those aged 20-54. This is not unexpected, given that a full 10 percent more younger respondents to the survey are still going out as compared to those over the age of 55.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 67.8% Live Caller/ 32.2% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 7th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition.
Media Contacts:   Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights,  h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034
About OH Predictive Insights:
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

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