FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                      August 21, 2018   

OHPI/ ABC15 POLL: David Garcia Has 15-Point Lead in Democratic Primary for Arizona Governor

Almost a Third of Voters Undecided

PHOENIX (August 21, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights shows that David Garcia has a 15-point lead over his nearest rival, State Senator Steve Farley, in the Arizona Democratic primary race for Governor.

OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out who is currently winning the Democratic primary for Governor.

“Garcia currently has the advantage due to strong support among self-identified liberals, women and voter-rich Maricopa County,” said Mike Noble, Managing Partner and Chief Pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research polling company. “With 28 percent of the likely Democratic vote still undecided, it’s possible we could see a surprise come election night.”

David Garcia currently holds 40% of the primary vote, Steve Farley holds 25% and Kelly Fryer has 7%, with 28% still undecided.

Garcia is outperforming his fellow Democratic opponents in three key demographic groups: gender, region and political ideology. Compared to his closest rival, Steve Farley, Garcia holds a 17-point advantage over woman, 24-point advantage in Maricopa County and 25-point advantage among self-identified liberals.

There is one bright spot for Farley: He is out performing Garcia in Pima County by 14 points.

Of those surveyed, 46% said they have already mailed back their early ballot, 34% have not mailed in their early ballot although plan on sending it in, 19% plan to vote at the polls, and roughly 1% did not know. President Donald Trump’s job approval was not much of a surprise given the target audience. Roughly 9 out of every 10 respondents disapproved of the job Trump is doing.

Methodology: This IVR telephone survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights in partnership with ABC15-Phoenix (OHPI/ABC15) on August 14 and 15, 2018, from a likely Arizona 2018 Democratic Primary voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, geographic location, gender, and age. 90% of respondents were Democrats and 10% were Independent voters. 100% of respondents were completed via landline. The sample size was 589 completed surveys, with a MoE of +/- 4.04%.

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Media Contact:

Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights, a.krafft@ohpredictive.com , 480-414-8770

Chris Kline, ABC15 Arizona, ckline@abc15.com, 602-685-3055

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.

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