Larry Fitzgerald Tops Ranking of Potential Statewide Candidates

Larry Fitzgerald Tops Ranking of Potential Statewide Candidates

Larry Fitzgerald Tops Ranking of Potential Statewide Candidates

McCains, Arizona Senators, and Statewide Officeholders also Make Top 10

 

PHOENIX (February 9th, 2021)- As Larry Fitzgerald decides between another year on the gridiron or hanging up his cleats, he might want to consider a career in elected office.

OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) is releasing its first-ever Power Rankings of popular (and sometimes unpopular) figures in Arizona. Fitzgerald, the longtime Arizona Cardinals wide receiver, tops the inaugural list.

Sports figures top the list of most popular potential candidates as 2022 approaches. Next year features the fourth straight election for US Senator as well as open gubernatorial and attorney general offices.

A trio of Cardinals top the OHPI list – Fitzgerald, former QB Kurt Warner and team CEO Michael Bidwill would make the most formidable candidates in the state.

While John McCain, who passed away in 2018, is the highest-ranking Republican (No. 4 overall), Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is the most popular Democrat (No. 5 overall). State Treasurer Kimberly Yee and Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, both often mentioned for statewide office, clock in at No. 7 and No. 9, respectively.

Given the US Senate’s 50-50 split, Sen. Mark Kelly’s reelection battle in 2022 will have national consequences, and Gov. Doug Ducey faces the end of his maximum two terms. No significant candidate has stepped into the fray for either office yet.

“Every important statewide office, congressional district, legislative district, and a Senate seat will all be on the ballot next year,” says Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “With that in mind, it’s important to get a sense of potential candidates early. The OHPI Power Rankings do just that.”

OHPI based its Power Rankings on a recent survey that asked voters their opinions of the 50 individuals and what they look for in a statewide office candidate.  Notably, the ranking does not consider an individual’s likelihood to run for office – explaining the presence of Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and John McCain.

Other than name ID and net favorability — which are common indicators of a candidate’s electoral potential – OHPI has developed what it calls a “Demographic and Experience (D/E) Score” to help rank candidates who are relatively unknown to the electorate. OHPI considered a potential candidates’ political party, age, ethnicity, gender, state of birth, several different elected offices they may have held, among a number of other characteristics when assigning this score.

Notice there is very little overlap between the candidates on the “OHPI Power Top 10” list, which emphasizes a potential candidate’s Name ID and favorability, and the “D/E Score Top 10,” which ignores those measures entirely. Candidates who rank higher on the D/E score than low on the power ranking (e.g., Member of the Arizona Board of Regents Karrin Taylor-Robson or former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez) have the potential to make strong gubernatorial or senatorial candidates if they have the funds to boost their Name ID and keep a positive image among voters.

Links to full OHPI Power Rankings, Name ID, Net Fav, and Demographic and Experience Scores, as well as crosstabs from the poll, can be found below.

###

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 18th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,022 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

OHPI Power Score: This score considers name ID, net favorability, and OHPI’s Demographic and Experience score but puts a greater emphasis on name ID and net favorability than the other measure.

Demographic and Experience Score: This score assigns potential candidates points based on how well their personal characteristics match voters’ preferences. For example, 38% of voters preferred a candidate who is a Democrat; thus, the Democrats got 38% of a point. Thirty-seven percent chose a Republican, so Republicans got 37% of a point – and so on. The following characteristics compose this score: party, political experience, birth state, county of residence/representation, experience as a US Senator, experience as a US Congressman, experience as a Governor, experience as a statewide office, experience as an Arizona State Senator, experience as an Arizona State Representative, electoral record, gender, age, racial/ethnic minority status, and parental status. Party, age, and gender play a larger share in these rankings than the other characteristics.

Poll toplines and crosstabs can be found here

OHPI Power Rankings, Name ID/Net Fav, and Demographic and Experience Scores

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

 

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.

More than Half of Republicans Think Trump was the “Rightful” Winner in 2020

More than Half of Republicans Think Trump was the “Rightful” Winner in 2020

More than Half of Republicans Think Trump was the “Rightful” Winner in 2020

54% of GOP Voters Believe the Election Was Stolen From Trump

 

PHOENIX (February 8th, 2021)- As Republicans in the Arizona State Senate prepare to go to the mattresses with the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors over an audit of the 2020 election results in the state’s largest county, just six in 10 voters are confident in the outcome of the election.

According to a survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) in January 2021 of Arizona registered voters, three in five voters in the state believe Joe Biden is the rightful winner of the 2020 Presidential Election and that the election results are sound. However, small but significant portions of the state believe that the election was stolen from former President Trump and that he is the actual winner of the election.

“Despite a lack of evidence, half of Arizona Republican voters believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “There may be no convincing these voters otherwise, even as the voting machines undergo several audits.”

The schism is deepest by party. Just 3 percent of Democrats believe Trump is the rightful winner, as do 20 percent of independents. But more than 50 percent of GOP voters claim that Trump is the rightful winner, while an additional 19 percent are unsure of who won in 2020.

A slightly larger share of Arizonans believes that the election was stolen from President Trump and delivered to President Biden in several states. Half (54%) of Republicans, 22% of Independents, and 8% of Democrats subscribe to this view.

###

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 18th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,022 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Poll toplines and crosstabs can be found here

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.

Concern Over COVID-19 Remains High

Concern Over COVID-19 Remains High

Concern Over COVID-19 Remains High

One-Quarter of Voters Unwilling to Take a Vaccine

 

PHOENIX (January 28th, 2021)- While Coronavirus cases in Arizona appear to be inching lower, concern over the virus’s spread is not. According to a poll of 1,022 Arizona registered voters conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) from January 11th to 18th of this year, nearly two-thirds of the state is concerned about the Coronavirus spread – this includes 42 percent of voters who said they were “extremely” concerned.

The survey also found that the partisan nature of the debate surrounding COVID-19 continues to influence how worried voters feel about the disease. While three in five (59%) Democrats reported being extremely concerned about COVID-19’s spread in Arizona, less than one-third (29%) of Republicans said the same. In fact, 15% of GOP voters in the state were not concerned at all about the spread – compared to just 2% of Democrats and 8% of Independents.

While Republicans are less likely to be concerned about the spread of the Coronavirus in general, there was a significant difference in concern among GOP voters – particularly by age. While 33% of Republicans 55 years old or older were extremely concerned over the virus’s spread, only 23% of GOP voters under 55 said the same.

Democrats, on the other hand, were considerably more concerned about the outbreak than the state as a whole. More than 80% of registered Democrats in Arizona said they were extremely or moderately concerned about the spread. There was a regional split among Democrats, though. Nine out of ten Pima County Democrats were at the highest two levels of concern, compared to 83% of Maricopa County Democrats and only 70% of Democrats in Arizona’s 13 more rural counties.

“I have said it before, and I will say it again. This virus does not care about political party, ethnicity, religious affiliation or economic status, but it has been treated as a political football since the beginning,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Throughout the pandemic, GOP voters have been consistently less concerned than voters of other parties.”

Concern over the outbreak also indicated a willingness to take a Coronavirus vaccine. Only 18% of voters who said they were extremely or moderately concerned about the virus’s spread would not take a vaccine today. On the other hand, 44% of voters either slightly or not at all concerned would be unwilling to get vaccinated. Although, in positive news for health officials’ attempt to get as much of the population vaccinated as possible, more than one-third (36%) of voters at the lower levels of concern would still take a vaccine today, if they had the opportunity.

“Credit needs to be given to government and health officials who have been encouraging folks to get vaccinated,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “The tide has shifted dramatically since last summer when most people were hesitant about taking a vaccine.”

When it comes to officials and their actions to combat the pandemic, voters are not particularly enthused with the job Arizona has done compared to other states. Only one-quarter of Arizona voters think that Governor Doug Ducey has dealt with COVID-19 better than governors of other states – 43% believe that other governors have done better. Doug Ducey’s performance isn’t rated particularly highly among voters of his party, either — only 38% of Republicans think he has done better than governors of other states. One-fifth of Independents and 15% of Democrats agree.

However, when voters were asked to compare Governor Ducey’s performance against two other governors who have garnered significant media attention throughout the pandemic, he fares better.  Nearly 4 in 10 voters believe that Governor Ducey has done a better job than California Governor Gavin Newsom, including 65% of Republicans, 35% of Independents, and 14% of Democrats.

Opinions were evenly split when comparing the job Governor Ducey has done to that of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Ducey was ranked better by 37% of voters, while Cuomo was ranked better by 38% – a statistically insignificant difference of 1%.

###

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 18th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,022 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Toplines and crosstabs can be found here

Media Contacts: 

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com

Biggs’ Problem in CD5

Biggs’ Problem in CD5

Biggs’ Problem in CD5

6 in 10 want Andy Biggs to resign if allegations of role in Capitol Riots are true

 

PHOENIX (January 22, 2021)- Rep. Andy Biggs’ grip on his ruby-red East Valley congressional district may be in jeopardy amid allegations that he helped plan the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol.

A new survey of 500 registered voters in Arizona’s 5 Congressional District (CD5) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) found six in 10 voters want their congressman to resign if the allegations are true. Nearly seven in 10 voters want congressional or U.S. attorney investigations into what happened during the deadly day at the Capitol.

“Voters across the CD5 spectrum were appalled by the actions of the rioters at the U.S. Capitol,” OHPI chief of research Mike Noble said. “Andy Biggs may have to explain to his constituents whether he was involved in the planning of the event as alleged.”

Half of all registered voters in CD5 have heard of the allegations that some U.S. Congressmen played a role in the events of that day, according to the poll taken between January 19 and January 20, 2021.

Awareness is highest among older voters and Democrats and lowest among Republicans and members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS).

Voters overwhelmingly agreed that there should be ramifications for a member of Congress, if he or she did play a part in the events surrounding the storming of the Capitol.

“Voters in this district across are sending a clear message,” Noble said. “They want any member of Congress who played a role in the riots to be held accountable.”

Seven in 10 voters in CD5 – including three-fifths of registered Republicans — would support either Congress itself or the U.S. Attorney’s Office launching an investigation into a members’ alleged role in the attacks. Support dips to slightly more than 60 percent for removing the member from their chairmanship of any groups they may be a part of, if applicable. However, even the heaviest punishment – expelling the member from Congress – earned the support of 62 percent of voters in the district along with a plurality of Republicans.

Regarding Rep. Biggs, half (48 percent) of his constituents believe that the allegations that he played a role in the events on Jan. 6 are true. Only 33 percent disagree. It should be noted that Biggs denies allegations from one of the organizers that he helped create the Jan. 6 event.

In potentially troubling news for Biggs, if the allegations are true, more than 6 in 10 of his constituents think that he should resign his seat in Congress. This includes majorities of Independents, older voters, and members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints – all of which are large components of Biggs’ base of support in his district.

While a majority (52 percent) of Republicans believe the allegations against Biggs are probably or definitely false, if it turns out that Biggs did in fact play a role in the Jan. 6 events, GOP support begins to crack. A plurality of Republicans (44 percent) would prefer Biggs resign and someone else represent them in Congress. Only 39 percent of GOP voters in the district would want Biggs to continue to be their voice in Washington.

“Looking at the numbers, it becomes apparent Congressman Biggs had better mount a vigorous defense of his actions,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss, “because voters in a district he won by nearly 20 points appear to be willing to turn on him.”

###

Methodology:This poll  was conducted as a blended phone survey 32% Live Caller/68% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 19th to January 20th, 2021, from an Arizona Congressional District 5 Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, age, party affiliation, and ethnicity. The sample size was 500 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insightsprovides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. 

OHPI Polling Forecasted Arizona Ballot Results

OHPI Polling Forecasted Arizona Ballot Results

OHPI Polling Forecasted Arizona Ballot Results

PHOENIX (November 17th, 2020)- With all of the votes counted, OH Predictive Insights celebrates correctly predicting the results of the state’s most important contests. As unofficial results from Arizona’s 2020 general election are finalized, the results closely match the OH Predictive Insights(OHPI) final poll of the 2020 Election season.

“As prominent national pollsters wonder what went wrong with their state polling, I’m pleased our polling and turnout models accurately reflected Arizona’s electorate,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said. “Every contest we polled, we polled correctly.”

The final OHPI 2020 poll, released one week before Election Day, showed Joe Biden earning the support of 49% of likely voters to Donald Trump’s 46%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%, meaning that the poll expected Biden’s support to fall between 45.3% and 52.7%, and Donald Trump’s support to fall between 42.3% and 49.7%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s unofficial results show both candidates well within the OHPI final range, with Joe Biden at 49.39% and Donald Trump at 49.09%.

The U.S. Senate race in Arizona is similarly in line with OHPI expectations. The OHPI final election poll put Mark Kelly’s support at 50% of Arizona likely voters and Martha McSally’s support at 45%. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%, meaning that the poll expected Mark Kelly’s support to fall between 46.3% and 53.7%, and Martha McSally’s support to fall between 41.3% and 48.7%. The Arizona Secretary of State’s office had unofficial results showing one candidate well within the OHPI final range with Mark Kelly at 51.17% and Martha McSally 0.13% outside the range at 48.83%. The results of the poll more accurately reflected the race than the final polling average on RealClearPolitics.

Polling on Arizona’s Proposition 207, the initiative to make recreational marijuana legal, is also on the mark. In the final OHPI poll, 60% of respondents supported the proposition. Considering margins of error, the support share was expected to fall between 56.3% and 63.7%. Unofficial results show 60.03% of voters voted in favor of Prop 207.

In the race for Arizona’s most contentious U.S. Congressional seat, OHPI conducted a poll of the 6th Congressional District in September 2020 to find David Schweikert leading Hiral Tipirneni 49% to 46%. Due to the poll’s margin of error at 4.3%, the range for Schweikert’s support could fall between 44.7% and 53.3%, while Tipirneni’s could fall between 41.7% and 50.3%. OHPI is once again matching polling with unofficial vote totals as Schweikert defended his seat against Tipirneni, 52.17% to 47.83%.

The 2020 election cycle once again proves the value of having a pollster that knows the ins and outs of the local electorate – not one who parachutes in from out of state every time election season rolls around. The 2020 election showed, perhaps more than any previous election, that knowledge of the local political landscape combined with sound methodology provides accurate results.

###

Methodology: This pollwas conducted as a 100% Live Caller phone survey, 68% cell phones/32% land lines. The survey was completed byOH Predictive Insights (OHPI) from October 22nd to October 25th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The call list is based on the most current Arizona Secretary of State voter file. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 716 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: For this pollOHPI’s last before the 2020 General Election, OHPI transitioned away from our usual methodology. Previous AZPOP’s were used primarily as tracking polls, because of this, the sample make-up was kept constant from poll to poll in order to more easily identify shifts in mood in Arizona’s electorate. This poll had a different composition – most notably we intentionally increased the shares of Hispanic/Latino voters and non-college educated voters in the survey sample to bring the composition of the sample more in line with what we believe the electorate will look like on Election Day. Not only did we change the composition of the sample for this last poll, we also changed the collection method. We surveyed more than our usual 600 voters in order to obtain a smaller margin of error and a more accurate representation of the election result in Arizona. We also conducted this as a 100% live caller survey, instead of our usual blended live caller/IVR approach. 

Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034

About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and corporate clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. 

 

 

POLL: Biden Maintains Small Lead in Arizona

POLL: Biden Maintains Small Lead in Arizona

Biden Maintains Small Lead in Arizona

Former V.P. Leads Trump by Three Points

PHOENIX (October 27th, 2020)- Vice President Biden still holds a small lead over President Trump in the battle for Arizona’s pivotal 11 electoral votes, according to OH Predictive Insight’s (OHPI) last Arizona Public Opinion Pulse of the election cycle. Biden earns the support of 49% of likely voters to Trump’s 46%.

The poll also shows Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen garnered 3% and only 1% of voters were undecided.

Trump’s strongest support is found among Republicans (88%), men (54%), white voters (54%), and rural Arizona (54%). Biden, on the other hand, leans on Democrats (93%), Hispanic/Latino voters (60%), voters in Pima County (58%), and women (57%) for his strongest support. 

The pool of voters left for candidates to persuade is shrinking by the day, as six in ten respondents said they had already cast their ballots. In fact, less than one quarter (23%) of the voters who had not already cast their ballots said they were waiting to do so on Election Day. In an unusual breaking of tradition, it appears that most Democrats have already returned their ballots while many Republicans are waiting to do so closer to Election Day.

“Republicans are putting their faith in good weather and short lines Tuesday,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “Something as simple as a light drizzle may cost the GOP crucial votes in an already close race.”

In the state’s other race with national consequences, former astronaut Mark Kelly maintains his advantage over incumbent Sen. Martha McSally. Half (50%) of Arizona voters prefer Kelly while 45% prefer McSally.

One of the unique aspects of the 2020 election is the degree to which McSally’s fortunes are tied to the President’s. While John McCain outran the Republican presidential nominee each time he appeared on the ballot with one, it does not appear McSally will follow the trend.

In another divergence from the norm, the Senate race in Arizona is drawing enormous amounts of money. The amount raised by both candidates is dwarfing the amounts raised by the candidates in Arizona’s Senate race just two years ago. At the close of the 3rd Quarter of 2020, McSally raised just over $50 million, compared to just $13 million at the same time in 2018. An even starker difference is Mark Kelly’s $83 million raised in 2020 and Kyrsten Sinema’s 2018 total of $16 million.

Proposition 207, a statewide ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, appears poised for passage. The ballot measure is supported by six in ten voters and opposed by just 36%. Large majorities of Democrats and Independents support it, as well as 43% of Republicans.

###

Methodology: This poll was conducted as a 100% Live Caller phone survey, 68% cell phones/32% land lines. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) from October 22nd to October 25th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The call list is based on the most current Arizona Secretary of State voter file. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 716 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: For this poll, OHPI’s last before the 2020 General Election, OHPI transitioned away from our usual methodology. Previous AZPOP’s were used primarily as tracking polls. Because of this, the sample make-up was kept constant from poll to poll in order to more easily identify shifts in mood in Arizona’s electorate. This poll had a different composition – most notably we intentionally increased the shares of Hispanic/Latino voters and non-college educated voters in the survey sample to bring the composition of the sample more in line with what we believe the electorate will look like on Election Day. Not only did we change the composition of the sample for this last poll, we also changed the collection method. We surveyed more than our usual 600 voters in order to obtain a smaller margin of error and a more accurate representation of the election result in Arizona. We also conducted this as a 100% live caller survey, instead of our usual blended live caller/IVR approach.

Media Contacts:

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034